Closing spread
NYG -1
Total
32
Model margin
+1.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play-0.125
- 44.2%Success rate38.9%
- -0.061EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.008EPA / rush-0.112
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.6%
- -5.32CPOE-1.62
- 41.9%Third-down rate33.2%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.67Points / drive1.13
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BUF are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q1 10:24 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 8:32 | 6 | 66 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| NYG | Q1 5:31 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 0–14 |
| BUF | Q1 2:17 | 8 | 28 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| NYG | Q2 13:36 | 5 | 25 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| BUF | Q2 11:38 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 7–14 |
| NYG | Q2 10:19 | 4 | 45 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| BUF | Q2 8:32 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 14–14 |
| NYG | Q2 6:51 | 6 | 32 | Field goal | 17–14 |
| BUF | Q2 2:35 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 17–14 |
| NYG | Q2 1:18 | 6 | 31 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| BUF | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–14 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| BUF | Q3 14:45 | 2 | 31 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| NYG | Q3 13:54 | 14 | 65 | Turnover on downs | 17–21 |
| BUF | Q3 5:37 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–21 |
| NYG | Q3 4:05 | 7 | 34 | Turnover | 17–21 |
| BUF | Q4 14:47 | 2 | -1 | Opp touchdown | 24–21 |
| BUF | Q4 14:05 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 24–21 |
| NYG | Q4 12:05 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 24–21 |
| BUF | Q4 9:49 | 3 | -13 | Punt | 24–21 |
| NYG | Q4 8:50 | 2 | -1 | Turnover | 24–21 |
| BUF | Q4 8:01 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 30–21 |
| NYG | Q4 6:27 | 1 | 88 | Touchdown | 31–21 |
| BUF | Q4 6:12 | 2 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 38–21 |
| BUF | Q4 5:50 | 3 | 25 | Turnover | 38–21 |
| NYG | Q4 4:37 | 7 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 38–21 |
| BUF | Q4 1:05 | 2 | 10 | End of half | 38–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 7/15 | 111 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 17 | 151 | 8.9 | 1 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 24 | 145 | 6.0 | 2 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 9/26 | 161 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 18 | 70 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Dwayne Wright | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.60
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.96