Closing spread
NYG -1
Total
32
Model margin
+1.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play-0.125
- 44.2%Success rate38.9%
- -0.061EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.008EPA / rush-0.112
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.6%
- -5.32CPOE-1.62
- 41.9%Third-down rate33.2%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.67Points / drive1.13
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BUF are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 7/15 | 111 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 17 | 151 | 8.9 | 1 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 24 | 145 | 6.0 | 2 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 9/26 | 161 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 18 | 70 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Dwayne Wright | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.60
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.96