Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
-2.2est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.010EPA / play-0.176
- 40.3%Success rate35.9%
- +0.116EPA / dropback-0.148
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.226
- 7.9%Explosive rate5.9%
- 41.4%Third-down rate33.3%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.59Points / drive0.87
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.138EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 53.1 points. ARI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 62 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 11:36 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 10:05 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 8:02 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 6:37 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| ARI | Q1 1:03 | 14 | 58 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| BUF | Q2 9:31 | 6 | 32 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| ARI | Q2 6:32 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–7 |
| BUF | Q2 5:07 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–7 |
| ARI | Q2 3:42 | 7 | 30 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| BUF | Q2 1:15 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 14–14 |
| ARI | Q2 0:12 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 14–14 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–14 |
| BUF | Q3 13:23 | 14 | 55 | Field goal | 17–14 |
| ARI | Q3 4:07 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 17–14 |
| BUF | Q3 1:02 | 9 | 32 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| ARI | Q4 10:56 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–14 |
| BUF | Q4 10:34 | 13 | 78 | Touchdown | 24–14 |
| ARI | Q4 3:01 | 6 | 65 | Touchdown | 30–21 |
| BUF | Q4 1:49 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 31–21 |
| ARI | Q4 1:44 | 5 | -8 | Turnover on downs | 31–21 |
| BUF | Q4 1:16 | 1 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 31–21 |
| ARI | Q4 0:14 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 31–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 21/32 | 239 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thurman Thomas | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Doug Flutie | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 6 | 11 | 73 | 1 |
| Jay Riemersma | 5 | 7 | 62 | 1 |
| Andre Reed | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Kevin R. Williams | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Thurman Thomas | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 11/30 | 119 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Murrell | 12 | 47 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Jake Plummer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Sanders | 5 | 12 | 57 | 0 |
| Rob Moore | 2 | 8 | 38 | 1 |
| David Boston | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.1%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.24