Closing spread
ARI -1
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.052
- 44.2%Success rate45.0%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.059EPA / rush-0.140
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.6%
- +1.44CPOE+5.02
- 40.4%Third-down rate43.3%
- 44.7%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.59Points / drive2.12
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 53.1 points. ARI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 20 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 12:23 | 6 | 38 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 9:52 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 5:55 | 14 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| BUF | Q2 14:15 | 3 | 88 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| ARI | Q2 12:09 | 13 | 73 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| BUF | Q2 5:51 | 8 | 63 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| ARI | Q2 1:46 | 7 | 44 | Field goal | 14–24 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–24 |
| BUF | Q3 12:38 | 5 | 21 | Field goal | 17–24 |
| ARI | Q3 9:35 | 13 | 72 | Touchdown | 17–31 |
| BUF | Q3 2:33 | 1 | 5 | Turnover | 17–31 |
| ARI | Q3 2:13 | 3 | 13 | Field goal | 17–34 |
| BUF | Q4 14:55 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 17–34 |
| ARI | Q4 13:32 | 6 | 24 | Touchdown | 17–41 |
| BUF | Q4 10:35 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 17–41 |
| ARI | Q4 8:20 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–41 |
| BUF | Q4 7:12 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 17–41 |
| ARI | Q4 6:33 | 7 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 17–41 |
| BUF | Q4 3:24 | 11 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 17–41 |
| ARI | Q4 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–41 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 15/21 | 220 | 1 | 1 |
| Trent Edwards | 3/3 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 13 | 55 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 33/42 | 250 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 21 | 57 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Tim Hightower | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 2 |
| J.J. Arrington | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.14