Closing spread
ARI -5
Total
48
Model margin
+0.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play+0.056
- 45.3%Success rate44.9%
- +0.043EPA / dropback+0.076
- -0.093EPA / rush+0.028
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.0%
- -0.78CPOE+0.94
- 40.4%Third-down rate41.7%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.89Points / drive2.08
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 53.1 points. BUF are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 26/50 | 287 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 19 | 83 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Chris Johnson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 6 | 11 | 70 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 4 | 11 | 65 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 7 | 12 | 60 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 3 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Niklas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 14/25 | 119 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 17 | 110 | 6.5 | 2 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 9 | 76 | 8.4 | 1 |
| Mike Gillislee | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 6 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Walt Powell | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.35