2016 · Week 3

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

18·33

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 64°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

ARI -5

Total

48

Model margin

+0.3est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapBills
  • -0.005EPA / play+0.056
  • 45.3%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.043EPA / dropback+0.076
  • -0.093EPA / rush+0.028
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -0.78CPOE+0.94
  • 40.4%Third-down rate41.7%
  • 65.4%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.89Points / drive2.08
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 53.1 points. BUF are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1ARI @ BUF28–34BUF
2020 · W10BUF @ ARI30–32ARI
2012 · W6BUF @ ARI19–16BUF
2008 · W5BUF @ ARI17–41ARI
2004 · W8ARI @ BUF14–38BUF
1999 · W15BUF @ ARI31–21BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–BUF
BUFQ1 15:003-10Punt0–0
ARIQ1 12:3732Punt0–0
BUFQ1 11:32512Punt0–0
ARIQ1 9:243-2Punt0–0
BUFQ1 7:20677Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 3:293-3Punt0–3
BUFQ1 2:25663Touchdown0–10
ARIQ1 0:5535Punt0–10
BUFQ2 15:0040Turnover0–10
ARIQ2 14:1035Punt0–10
BUFQ2 13:16647Touchdown0–17
ARIQ2 10:252079Touchdown7–17
BUFQ2 1:05822End of half7–17
ARIQ3 15:0033Punt7–17
BUFQ3 13:20647Touchdown7–23
ARIQ3 10:311363Opp touchdown7–30
ARIQ3 2:25683Touchdown13–30
BUFQ3 0:124-1Punt13–30
ARIQ4 12:5569Field goal16–30
BUFQ4 10:36629Punt16–30
ARIQ4 7:35421Turnover16–30
BUFQ4 6:30413Field goal16–33
ARIQ4 4:48857Turnover18–33
BUFQ4 3:081-1Safety18–33
ARIQ4 3:043-6Turnover18–33
BUFQ4 2:1332Punt18–33
ARIQ4 1:51432Turnover18–33
BUFQ4 1:0700End of half18–33

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer26/5028704

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson19834.42
Chris Johnson252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Brown611700
Michael Floyd411650
Larry Fitzgerald712600
Jaron Brown36490
David Johnson36280
Darren Fells22150
Jermaine Gresham0100
Troy Niklas1100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor14/2511901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy171106.52
Tyrod Taylor9768.41
Mike Gillislee3206.70
Jonathan Williams320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods68510
Walt Powell35280
Nick O'Leary11280
LeSean McCoy3460
Marquise Goodwin1560
Charles Clay0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.84%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+0.35