Closing spread
BUF -4.5
Total
33.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.097EPA / play-0.073
- 38.1%Success rate40.7%
- -0.074EPA / dropback-0.012
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.139
- 7.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- 34.7%Third-down rate35.8%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.19Points / drive1.71
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.081EPA / play allowed-0.135
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 53.1 points. BUF are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 9/24 | 101 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 22 | 64 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 8/17 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 30 | 102 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Joe Burns | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
40.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.06