Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
55.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.169EPA / play+0.051
- 50.4%Success rate46.0%
- +0.298EPA / dropback+0.087
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.009
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- +6.29CPOE+2.07
- 49.9%Third-down rate40.2%
- 68.4%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
- 2.78Points / drive2.19
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 53.1 points. ARI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 32/49 | 284 | 2 | 2 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1/1 | 12 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Beasley | 11 | 13 | 109 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 10 | 10 | 93 | 1 |
| John Brown | 6 | 8 | 72 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 22/32 | 245 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 16 | 100 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 11 | 61 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Chase Edmonds | 8 | 56 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 12 | 127 | 1 |
| Dan Arnold | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.77
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.06