2020 · Week 10

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

30·32

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -3

Total

55.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.169EPA / play+0.051
  • 50.4%Success rate46.0%
  • +0.298EPA / dropback+0.087
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.009
  • 10.7%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +6.29CPOE+2.07
  • 49.9%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 68.4%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
  • 2.78Points / drive2.19
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 53.1 points. ARI are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1ARI @ BUF28–34BUF
2016 · W3ARI @ BUF18–33BUF
2012 · W6BUF @ ARI19–16BUF
2008 · W5BUF @ ARI17–41ARI
2004 · W8ARI @ BUF14–38BUF
1999 · W15BUF @ ARI31–21BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–ARI
ARIQ1 15:001275Field goal0–3
BUFQ1 9:53763Touchdown7–3
ARIQ1 6:2333Punt7–3
BUFQ1 4:23931Field goal10–3
ARIQ2 14:02956Field goal10–6
BUFQ2 8:45738Field goal13–6
ARIQ2 5:451572Field goal13–9
BUFQ2 1:24629Field goal16–9
BUFQ3 15:00735Punt16–9
ARIQ3 11:3512Turnover16–9
BUFQ3 11:27432Touchdown23–9
ARIQ3 9:521085Touchdown23–16
BUFQ3 5:4436Punt23–16
ARIQ3 4:3533Field goal23–19
BUFQ3 3:05414Turnover23–19
ARIQ3 1:13447Touchdown23–26
BUFQ3 0:0865Punt23–26
ARIQ4 11:51538Turnover23–26
BUFQ4 9:17643Punt23–26
ARIQ4 6:4033Punt23–26
BUFQ4 4:3810Turnover23–26
ARIQ4 4:313-6Punt23–26
BUFQ4 3:351373Touchdown30–26
ARIQ4 0:34475Touchdown30–32
BUFQ4 0:0200End of half30–32

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen32/4928422
Isaiah McKenzie1/11210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen7385.40
Zack Moss7202.90
Devin Singletary4153.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Beasley11131091
Stefon Diggs1010931
John Brown68720
Dawson Knox24160
Josh Allen11121
Isaiah McKenzie1120
Gabe Davis0300
Zack Moss12-30
Devin Singletary13-50

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray22/3224511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake161006.30
Kyler Murray11615.52
Chase Edmonds8567.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins7121271
Dan Arnold44340
Christian Kirk46270
Chase Edmonds33210
Andy Isabella11140
Larry Fitzgerald25130
Kenyan Drake1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.2%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.77
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.06