Closing spread
ARI -5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play-0.259
- 42.3%Success rate35.1%
- +0.004EPA / dropback-0.267
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.242
- 10.0%Explosive rate6.0%
- -1.57CPOE-8.47
- 39.8%Third-down rate25.9%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate36.3%
- 1.58Points / drive0.79
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 53.1 points. ARI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 18/32 | 153 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 12 | 88 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 16 | 53 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 6 | 11 | 82 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kolb | 14/26 | 128 | 1 | 1 |
| John Skelton | 2/10 | 45 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Powell | 13 | 70 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Kevin Kolb | 5 | 66 | 13.2 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 11 | 22 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 12 | 93 | 1 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| William Powell | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
40.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.22
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.28