2012 · Week 6

Final / OT

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

19·16

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kevin Kolb

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -5

Total

44

Model margin

+3.3est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.007EPA / play-0.259
  • 42.3%Success rate35.1%
  • +0.004EPA / dropback-0.267
  • -0.021EPA / rush-0.242
  • 10.0%Explosive rate6.0%
  • -1.57CPOE-8.47
  • 39.8%Third-down rate25.9%
  • 58.2%Red-zone TD rate36.3%
  • 1.58Points / drive0.79
  • 3.3%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 53.1 points. ARI are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1ARI @ BUF28–34BUF
2020 · W10BUF @ ARI30–32ARI
2016 · W3ARI @ BUF18–33BUF
2008 · W5BUF @ ARI17–41ARI
2004 · W8ARI @ BUF14–38BUF
1999 · W15BUF @ ARI31–21BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–ARI
BUFQ1 15:0014Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 14:4532Field goal0–3
BUFQ1 13:50731Punt0–3
ARIQ1 9:393-7Safety2–3
BUFQ1 8:361049Touchdown9–3
ARIQ1 3:35619Punt9–3
BUFQ2 14:5230Punt9–3
ARIQ2 13:4732Punt9–3
BUFQ2 12:313-4Punt9–3
ARIQ2 10:251067Touchdown9–10
BUFQ2 4:4738Punt9–10
ARIQ2 3:11944Punt9–10
BUFQ2 0:54413End of half9–10
ARIQ3 15:0030Punt9–10
BUFQ3 12:52734Punt9–10
ARIQ3 9:301253Field goal9–13
BUFQ3 3:12580Touchdown16–13
ARIQ3 0:27745Punt16–13
BUFQ4 11:24742Punt16–13
ARIQ4 7:15327Turnover16–13
BUFQ4 5:54623Turnover16–13
ARIQ4 3:071052Field goal16–16
BUFQ4 1:0933Punt16–16
ARIQ4 0:50228Missed field goal16–16
BUFOT824Punt16–16
ARIOT30Turnover16–16
BUFOT1-1Field goal19–16

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick18/3215300
Brad Smith0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Spiller12887.31
Fred Jackson16533.31
Brad Smith2199.50
Ryan Fitzpatrick351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson611820
Fred Jackson56300
C.J. Spiller45220
Donald Jones1490
Trevor Graham1360
Scott Chandler1340

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kevin Kolb14/2612811
John Skelton2/104501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
William Powell13705.40
Kevin Kolb56613.20
LaRod Stephens-Howling11222.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald612931
Michael Floyd13240
Andre Roberts26180
Rob Housler23120
Jeff King24100
William Powell1180
Early Doucet1310
LaRod Stephens-Howling0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

40.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.22
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.28