2024 · Week 1

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

28·34

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 61°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

BUF -6.5

Total

46

Model margin

+3.4est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapBills
  • +0.067EPA / play+0.186
  • 47.3%Success rate47.8%
  • +0.126EPA / dropback+0.298
  • -0.023EPA / rush+0.029
  • 10.0%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +2.11CPOE+0.64
  • 43.0%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate75.1%
  • 2.31Points / drive2.90
  • 1.8%Turnover rate0.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 53.1 points. BUF are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W10BUF @ ARI30–32ARI
2016 · W3ARI @ BUF18–33BUF
2012 · W6BUF @ ARI19–16BUF
2008 · W5BUF @ ARI17–41ARI
2004 · W8ARI @ BUF14–38BUF
1999 · W15BUF @ ARI31–21BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–BUF
ARIQ1 15:001360Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 7:47416Turnover7–0
ARIQ1 5:24960Field goal10–0
BUFQ2 14:571060Field goal10–3
ARIQ2 9:471371Touchdown17–3
BUFQ2 2:40865Touchdown17–10
ARIQ2 0:1900End of half17–10
BUFQ3 15:001070Touchdown17–17
ARIQ3 9:513-4Punt17–17
BUFQ3 7:5333Punt17–17
ARIQ3 6:1620Turnover17–17
BUFQ3 5:25521Touchdown17–24
ARIQ3 2:37758Field goal20–24
BUFQ4 13:321075Touchdown26–31
ARIQ4 8:4400Touchdown28–31
BUFQ4 8:31627Punt28–31
ARIQ4 5:173-5Punt28–31
BUFQ4 4:30416Field goal28–34
ARIQ4 1:56931Turnover on downs28–34
BUFQ4 0:2600End of half28–34

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray21/3116210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyler Murray55711.40
James Conner16503.11
Trey Benson3134.30
Greg Dortch144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Dortch68470
James Conner34330
Trey McBride59300
Emari Demercado22260
Elijah Higgins22120
Michael Wilson1251
Trey Benson1150
Marvin Harrison Jr.1340

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen18/2323220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook19713.70
Josh Allen9394.32
Ray Davis3134.30
Ty Johnson273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keon Coleman45510
Khalil Shakir33421
James Cook33320
Mack Hollins22251
Dawson Knox12230
Marquez Valdes-Scantling12190
Curtis Samuel22150
Ray Davis11140
Dalton Kincaid12110
Ty Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.3%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.73
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.44