Closing spread
BUF -6.5
Total
46
Model margin
+3.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play+0.186
- 47.3%Success rate47.8%
- +0.126EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.023EPA / rush+0.029
- 10.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- +2.11CPOE+0.64
- 43.0%Third-down rate45.6%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate75.1%
- 2.31Points / drive2.90
- 1.8%Turnover rate0.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 53.1 points. BUF are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 21/31 | 162 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 57 | 11.4 | 0 |
| James Conner | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Trey Benson | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Dortch | 6 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| James Conner | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 5 | 9 | 30 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Trey Benson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 18/23 | 232 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 19 | 71 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Ray Davis | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keon Coleman | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 3 | 3 | 42 | 1 |
| James Cook | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 2 | 25 | 1 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.73
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.44