Closing spread
BAL -8.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+6.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play-0.091
- 36.9%Success rate36.5%
- -0.081EPA / dropback-0.084
- -0.247EPA / rush-0.100
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.5%
- 34.1%Third-down rate28.4%
- 45.0%Red-zone TD rate40.6%
- 1.12Points / drive1.00
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.007EPA / play allowed-0.151
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. BAL are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Joe Tolliver | 16/35 | 207 | 1 | 3 |
| Danny Wuerffel | 5/11 | 45 | 0 | 1 |
| Billy Joe Hobert | 0/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilmont Perry | 11 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Troy Davis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Billy Joe Tolliver | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Dino Philyaw | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawrence Dawsey | 3 | 7 | 73 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 5 | 13 | 67 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 4 | 8 | 51 | 1 |
| Dino Philyaw | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Troy Davis | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Andre Hastings | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Wilmont Perry | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 24/36 | 298 | 3 | 3 |
| Stoney Case | 0/3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Chuck Evans | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Stoney Case | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadry Ismail | 7 | 8 | 115 | 1 |
| Justin Armour | 4 | 5 | 50 | 1 |
| Priest Holmes | 3 | 3 | 44 | 1 |
| Pat Johnson | 3 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Ryan Collins | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Chuck Evans | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Greg DeLong | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.58
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.14