1999 · Week 15

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Billy Joe Tolliver

8·31

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tony Banks

PSINet Stadium · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

BAL -8.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+6.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapRavens
  • -0.148EPA / play-0.091
  • 36.9%Success rate36.5%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback-0.084
  • -0.247EPA / rush-0.100
  • 7.7%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 34.1%Third-down rate28.4%
  • 45.0%Red-zone TD rate40.6%
  • 1.12Points / drive1.00
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.7%
  • +0.007EPA / play allowed-0.151

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 50.1 points. BAL are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2NO @ BAL24–17NO
2022 · W9BAL @ NO27–13BAL
2018 · W7NO @ BAL24–23NO
2014 · W12BAL @ NO34–27BAL
2010 · W15NO @ BAL24–30BAL
2006 · W8BAL @ NO35–22BAL
2002 · W14NO @ BAL37–25NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–BAL
NOQ1 15:0040Punt0–0
BALQ1 14:0934Punt0–0
NOQ1 12:15312Punt0–0
BALQ1 10:2232Punt0–0
NOQ1 9:3630Punt0–0
BALQ1 7:3532Punt0–0
NOQ1 6:03318Turnover0–0
BALQ1 5:1339Field goal0–3
NOQ1 3:0437Punt0–3
BALQ1 1:13459Touchdown0–10
NOQ2 14:12634Turnover on downs0–10
BALQ2 11:38410Punt0–10
NOQ2 9:38520Punt0–10
BALQ2 6:05423Turnover0–10
NOQ2 4:4939Punt0–10
BALQ2 3:041082Touchdown0–17
NOQ2 0:242-4End of half0–17
BALQ3 15:0034Punt0–17
NOQ3 13:2833Punt0–17
BALQ3 11:56841Turnover0–17
NOQ3 7:5639Punt0–17
BALQ3 5:4133Punt0–17
NOQ3 4:393-3Punt0–17
BALQ3 3:18315Turnover0–17
NOQ3 1:5130Punt0–17
BALQ3 1:30481Touchdown0–24
NOQ4 14:1430Punt0–24
BALQ4 13:4033Turnover0–24
NOQ4 12:55481Touchdown8–24
BALQ4 10:3043Punt8–24
NOQ4 8:1368Turnover8–24
BALQ4 6:2533Punt8–24
NOQ4 4:4829Turnover8–24
BALQ4 4:333-8Punt8–24
NOQ4 2:2822Opp touchdown8–31
BALQ4 1:4900Opp touchdown8–31
NOQ4 1:49943Turnover on downs8–31
BALQ4 0:111-1End of half8–31

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Billy Joe Tolliver16/3520713
Danny Wuerffel5/114501
Billy Joe Hobert0/3000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wilmont Perry11111.00
Troy Davis122.00
Billy Joe Tolliver221.00
Dino Philyaw1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lawrence Dawsey37730
Eddie Kennison513670
Keith Poole48511
Dino Philyaw25230
Troy Davis24130
Cameron Cleeland12110
Andre Hastings3690
Wilmont Perry1150

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Banks24/3629833
Stoney Case0/3001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Priest Holmes10282.80
Errict Rhett11211.90
Chuck Evans177.00
Tony Banks166.00
Stoney Case1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Qadry Ismail781151
Justin Armour45501
Priest Holmes33441
Pat Johnson39430
Errict Rhett44220
Ryan Collins12210
Chuck Evans1370
Greg DeLong12-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.1%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.3%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.14