Closing spread
BAL -1
Total
46
Model margin
+2.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.037
- 45.3%Success rate45.5%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.018
- +0.034EPA / rush-0.109
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.6%
- -1.40CPOE+1.61
- 42.2%Third-down rate40.9%
- 46.9%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.87Points / drive1.59
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. NO are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 12/22 | 133 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 24 | 93 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Lamar Jackson | 11 | 82 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | 1 | 5 | 24 | 1 |
| James Proche | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 19/29 | 210 | 1 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/1 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 6 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 2 | 42 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Marquez Callaway | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Kevin White | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.39