2022 · Week 9

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

27·13

Saints

New Orleans

QB Andy Dalton

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

BAL -1

Total

46

Model margin

+2.4est.

NO perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSaints
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.037
  • 45.3%Success rate45.5%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback+0.018
  • +0.034EPA / rush-0.109
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -1.40CPOE+1.61
  • 42.2%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 46.9%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.59
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 50.1 points. NO are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2NO @ BAL24–17NO
2018 · W7NO @ BAL24–23NO
2014 · W12BAL @ NO34–27BAL
2010 · W15NO @ BAL24–30BAL
2006 · W8BAL @ NO35–22BAL
2002 · W14NO @ BAL37–25NO
1999 · W15NO @ BAL8–31BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–NO
NOQ1 15:00419Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:0151Punt0–0
NOQ1 10:3649Punt0–0
BALQ1 8:251176Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 1:2344Punt7–0
BALQ2 14:45612Punt7–0
NOQ2 11:4638Punt7–0
BALQ2 9:051386Touchdown14–0
NOQ2 2:001160Field goal14–3
BALQ3 15:001256Field goal17–3
NOQ3 8:251156Field goal17–6
BALQ3 1:2530Punt17–6
NOQ4 14:423-6Punt17–6
BALQ4 13:10745Field goal20–6
NOQ4 8:3110Turnover20–6
BALQ4 8:24317Touchdown27–6
NOQ4 6:55988Touchdown27–13
BALQ4 4:13826Punt27–13
NOQ4 0:2315End of half27–13

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson12/2213310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake24933.92
Lamar Jackson11827.50
Justice Hill4112.80
Patrick Ricard122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaiah Likely15241
James Proche22220
Josh Oliver13190
DeSean Jackson12160
Kenyan Drake22160
Demarcus Robinson14120
Justice Hill1180
Mike Davis1170
Devin Duvernay1150
Patrick Ricard1140

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton19/2921011
Taysom Hill1/11300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara9303.30
Dwayne Washington372.30
Taysom Hill166.00
Andy Dalton252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave69710
Juwan Johnson22421
Alvin Kamara34320
Tre'Quan Smith34290
Marquez Callaway35240
Kevin White11100
Adam Trautman1180
Dwayne Washington1170
Taysom Hill0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.5%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.39