2018 · Week 7

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

24·23

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

Total

49

Model margin

+0.8est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapRavens
  • +0.156EPA / play+0.035
  • 49.9%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.284EPA / dropback+0.061
  • -0.011EPA / rush+0.003
  • 10.2%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +5.42CPOE-3.77
  • 46.3%Third-down rate45.4%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 2.94Points / drive2.01
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 50.1 points. BAL are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2NO @ BAL24–17NO
2022 · W9BAL @ NO27–13BAL
2014 · W12BAL @ NO34–27BAL
2010 · W15NO @ BAL24–30BAL
2006 · W8BAL @ NO35–22BAL
2002 · W14NO @ BAL37–25NO
1999 · W15NO @ BAL8–31BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–BAL
NOQ1 15:002066Turnover0–0
BALQ1 4:57843Punt0–0
NOQ1 0:2068Punt0–0
BALQ2 13:271663Field goal0–3
NOQ2 6:04971Touchdown7–3
BALQ2 1:53774Touchdown7–10
NOQ2 0:0400End of half7–10
BALQ3 15:00630Punt7–10
NOQ3 11:00616Punt7–10
BALQ3 7:321061Touchdown7–17
NOQ3 3:301275Touchdown14–17
BALQ4 12:323-10Punt14–17
NOQ4 11:161256Touchdown21–17
BALQ4 4:581124Turnover on downs21–17
NOQ4 3:19648Field goal24–17
BALQ4 2:07766Touchdown24–23
NOQ4 0:2400End of half24–23

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees22/3021220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara17643.81
Taysom Hill6355.80
Mark Ingram12322.70
Drew Brees430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas79691
Tre'Quan Smith36440
Benjamin Watson66431
Dan Arnold23350
Alvin Kamara22110
Mark Ingram22100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco23/3927920
Lamar Jackson1/1500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Collins11383.50
Willie Snead11313.00
Chris Moore199.00
Lamar Jackson393.01
Joe Flacco144.00
Javorius Allen331.00
Maxx Williams111.00
Gus Edwards200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Brown771341
Michael Crabtree59660
Willie Snead37230
Javorius Allen33210
Chris Moore12140
Alex Collins34100
Nick Boyle1280
Mark Andrews1181
Hayden Hurst0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.41
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.48
  • Expected margin+0.85