Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
49
Model margin
+0.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play+0.035
- 49.9%Success rate45.8%
- +0.284EPA / dropback+0.061
- -0.011EPA / rush+0.003
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- +5.42CPOE-3.77
- 46.3%Third-down rate45.4%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 2.94Points / drive2.01
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. BAL are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 22/30 | 212 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 17 | 64 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 7 | 9 | 69 | 1 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 3 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 6 | 6 | 43 | 1 |
| Dan Arnold | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 23/39 | 279 | 2 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 1/1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 7 | 7 | 134 | 1 |
| Michael Crabtree | 5 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| Hayden Hurst | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.41
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+0.85