2002 · Week 14

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Aaron Brooks

37·25

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Jeff Blake

Ravens Stadium · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NO -2

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapRavens
  • -0.006EPA / play-0.058
  • 39.0%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.038EPA / dropback-0.044
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.078
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.3%
  • 40.9%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 59.3%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 1.94Points / drive1.09
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.005EPA / play allowed-0.021

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 50.1 points. BAL are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2NO @ BAL24–17NO
2022 · W9BAL @ NO27–13BAL
2018 · W7NO @ BAL24–23NO
2014 · W12BAL @ NO34–27BAL
2010 · W15NO @ BAL24–30BAL
2006 · W8BAL @ NO35–22BAL
1999 · W15NO @ BAL8–31BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–BAL
NOQ1 15:00818Punt0–0
BALQ1 11:19316Turnover0–0
NOQ1 10:08311Field goal3–0
BALQ1 8:46413Punt3–0
NOQ1 7:14228Touchdown10–0
BALQ1 7:043-6Punt10–0
BALQ1 5:5647Turnover on downs10–0
NOQ1 4:1430Punt10–0
BALQ1 3:51375Touchdown10–7
NOQ1 2:221165Field goal13–7
BALQ2 12:45514Punt13–7
NOQ2 10:25630Punt13–7
BALQ2 8:091243Punt13–7
NOQ2 2:3610Turnover13–7
BALQ2 2:301-2Turnover13–7
NOQ2 2:23717Touchdown20–7
BALQ2 0:3013End of half20–7
BALQ3 15:0048Turnover20–7
NOQ3 13:27517Punt20–7
BALQ3 11:2712Turnover20–7
NOQ3 11:19619Touchdown27–7
BALQ3 9:06277Touchdown27–14
NOQ3 8:41741Punt27–14
BALQ3 4:121480Field goal27–17
NOQ4 12:54974Field goal30–17
BALQ4 6:2620Turnover30–17
NOQ4 6:05729Touchdown37–17
BALQ4 2:57780Touchdown37–25
NOQ4 1:40410End of half37–25

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Brooks9/2512310
Jake Delhomme7/810300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deuce McAllister321274.03
Aaron Brooks3113.70
Jake Delhomme200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joe Horn711870
Donte' Stallworth33571
Jake Reed14540
Jerome Pathon14110
Deuce McAllister38100
David Sloan1170

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Blake18/3931622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis17482.81
Travis Taylor24422.00
Jeff Blake2136.50
Chester Taylor284.00
Alan Ricard111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamal Lewis471081
Todd Heap513870
Travis Taylor510830
Chester Taylor11190
Terry Jones24111
Alan Ricard1180
Randy Hymes0100
Ron Johnson0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -23.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.80
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.37