Closing spread
NO -2
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play-0.058
- 39.0%Success rate41.6%
- +0.038EPA / dropback-0.044
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.078
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- 40.9%Third-down rate38.2%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.94Points / drive1.09
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.005EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. BAL are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 9/25 | 123 | 1 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 7/8 | 103 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 32 | 127 | 4.0 | 3 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 7 | 11 | 87 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 3 | 3 | 57 | 1 |
| Jake Reed | 1 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 3 | 8 | 10 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 18/39 | 316 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 17 | 48 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Travis Taylor | 2 | 44 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 4 | 7 | 108 | 1 |
| Todd Heap | 5 | 13 | 87 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 5 | 10 | 83 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Terry Jones | 2 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| Alan Ricard | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Randy Hymes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.80
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.37