Closing spread
NO -2.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play+0.067
- 44.2%Success rate47.9%
- +0.149EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.043
- 10.6%Explosive rate8.7%
- -0.77CPOE+3.60
- 41.5%Third-down rate48.2%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
- 2.21Points / drive2.11
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. NO are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 18/24 | 243 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 22 | 182 | 8.3 | 2 |
| Bernard Pierce | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 5 | 6 | 98 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 6 | 89 | 1 |
| Marlon Brown | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 35/45 | 420 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Morgan | 1 | 67 | 67.0 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Stills | 8 | 9 | 98 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 4 | 4 | 82 | 1 |
| Joseph Morgan | 1 | 1 | 62 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 10 | 47 | 2 |
| Nick Toon | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.62