2014 · Week 12

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

34·27

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -2.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSaints
  • +0.069EPA / play+0.067
  • 44.2%Success rate47.9%
  • +0.149EPA / dropback+0.126
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.043
  • 10.6%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -0.77CPOE+3.60
  • 41.5%Third-down rate48.2%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
  • 2.21Points / drive2.11
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 50.1 points. NO are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2NO @ BAL24–17NO
2022 · W9BAL @ NO27–13BAL
2018 · W7NO @ BAL24–23NO
2010 · W15NO @ BAL24–30BAL
2006 · W8BAL @ NO35–22BAL
2002 · W14NO @ BAL37–25NO
1999 · W15NO @ BAL8–31BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–NO
NOQ1 15:00681Turnover on downs0–0
BALQ1 12:24982Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 8:1336Punt7–0
BALQ1 6:563-1Punt7–0
NOQ1 6:04680Touchdown7–7
BALQ1 3:20678Turnover7–7
NOQ2 14:55725Punt7–7
BALQ2 11:13474Touchdown14–7
NOQ2 9:081162Field goal14–10
BALQ2 4:00420Punt14–10
NOQ2 1:51781Touchdown14–17
BALQ2 0:17113End of half14–17
BALQ3 15:001252Field goal17–17
NOQ3 8:30731Opp touchdown24–17
NOQ3 4:59410Punt24–17
BALQ3 2:251147Field goal27–17
NOQ4 10:59964Field goal27–20
BALQ4 6:33885Touchdown34–20
NOQ4 2:531285Touchdown34–27
BALQ4 0:4000End of half34–27

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco18/2424310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett221828.32
Bernard Pierce7284.00
Jacoby Jones133.00
Joe Flacco221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith56980
Steve Smith46891
Marlon Brown11140
Justin Forsett2280
Owen Daniels2570
Bernard Pierce1160

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees35/4542031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Morgan16767.00
Mark Ingram11272.50
Pierre Thomas5193.80
Drew Brees3155.00
Kenny Stills1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Stills89980
Marques Colston44821
Joseph Morgan11620
Jimmy Graham610472
Nick Toon35420
Pierre Thomas68370
Josh Hill22220
Mark Ingram22150
Travaris Cadet22110
Benjamin Watson1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.7%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.62