Closing spread
NO -1
Total
37
Model margin
+1.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play+0.072
- 40.5%Success rate44.8%
- +0.108EPA / dropback+0.157
- -0.175EPA / rush-0.049
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- +3.00CPOE+2.07
- 42.7%Third-down rate45.7%
- 50.8%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.57Points / drive1.91
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 50.1 points. NO are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 10 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 14:07 | 3 | -4 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 12:51 | 9 | 29 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 7:55 | 6 | 72 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| BAL | Q1 4:17 | 11 | 85 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| NO | Q2 12:20 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–0 |
| BAL | Q2 10:21 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 14–0 |
| NO | Q2 7:36 | 3 | 5 | Opp touchdown | 21–0 |
| NO | Q2 6:09 | 4 | 56 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| BAL | Q2 4:08 | 9 | 71 | Touchdown | 28–7 |
| NO | Q2 0:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–7 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 28–7 |
| BAL | Q3 12:35 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 34–7 |
| NO | Q3 8:13 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 35–7 |
| NO | Q3 8:05 | 11 | 63 | Turnover on downs | 35–7 |
| BAL | Q3 3:25 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 35–7 |
| NO | Q3 1:01 | 7 | 69 | Touchdown | 35–14 |
| BAL | Q4 14:42 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 35–14 |
| NO | Q4 12:04 | 5 | 14 | Turnover | 35–14 |
| BAL | Q4 11:15 | 6 | 7 | Punt | 35–14 |
| NO | Q4 7:51 | 9 | 56 | Turnover on downs | 35–14 |
| BAL | Q4 5:49 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 35–14 |
| NO | Q4 1:56 | 7 | 55 | Touchdown | 35–22 |
| BAL | Q4 0:36 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 35–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 17/23 | 159 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 31 | 109 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Musa Smith | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 24/45 | 383 | 3 | 3 |
| Reggie Bush | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.11