Closing spread
NO -1
Total
37
Model margin
+1.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play+0.072
- 40.5%Success rate44.8%
- +0.108EPA / dropback+0.157
- -0.175EPA / rush-0.049
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- +3.00CPOE+2.07
- 42.7%Third-down rate45.7%
- 50.8%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.57Points / drive1.91
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. NO are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 17/23 | 159 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 31 | 109 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Musa Smith | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 24/45 | 383 | 3 | 3 |
| Reggie Bush | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.11