2026 · Week 2

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Tyler Shough

24·17

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BAL -8.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+6.3est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapRavens
  • -0.031EPA / play+0.071
  • 41.9%Success rate46.2%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.186
  • -0.169EPA / rush-0.080
  • 6.1%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +0.08CPOE+4.76
  • 43.6%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 76.7%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
  • 2.19Points / drive2.06
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 50.1 points. BAL are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W9BAL @ NO27–13BAL
2018 · W7NO @ BAL24–23NO
2014 · W12BAL @ NO34–27BAL
2010 · W15NO @ BAL24–30BAL
2006 · W8BAL @ NO35–22BAL
2002 · W14NO @ BAL37–25NO
1999 · W15NO @ BAL8–31BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–BAL
BALQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:25612Punt0–0
BALQ1 9:431381Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 2:52849Punt0–7
BALQ2 13:28663Missed field goal0–7
NOQ2 10:101261Field goal3–7
BALQ2 3:461080Touchdown3–14
NOQ2 0:24315Field goal6–14
NOQ3 15:00836Field goal9–14
BALQ3 11:001452Field goal9–17
NOQ3 3:233-12Punt9–17
BALQ3 1:413-11Punt9–17
NOQ4 15:001068Touchdown17–17
BALQ4 9:4239Punt17–17
NOQ4 8:061670Touchdown24–17
BALQ4 1:28534Turnover24–17
NOQ4 0:1300End of half24–17

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Shough27/3425210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne8253.10
Tyler Shough9232.61
Alvin Kamara9151.70
CJ Donaldson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave810861
Juwan Johnson44660
Devaughn Vele57640
Oscar Delp1180
Bryce Lance1180
Alvin Kamara5670
Kevin Austin Jr.1170
Travis Etienne2260

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson21/3123511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry16684.31
Lamar Jackson4348.50
Justice Hill263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashod Bateman79881
Mark Andrews67490
Devontez Walker12470
Derrick Henry33190
LaJohntay Wester12140
Justice Hill22120
Chris Moore1360
Durham Smythe0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.8%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.19
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.93
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.33