Closing spread
BAL -7.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+10.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.030EPA / play+0.209
- 44.3%Success rate46.9%
- +0.067EPA / dropback+0.316
- -0.075EPA / rush+0.101
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.9%
- -1.21CPOE+4.80
- 47.1%Third-down rate37.5%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate83.3%
- 2.20Points / drive3.13
- 3.4%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. BAL are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
76.1%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+8.55
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+10.77