Closing spread
BAL -1
Total
45
Model margin
+2.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play+0.028
- 46.2%Success rate41.8%
- +0.121EPA / dropback+0.133
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.102
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.3%
- +5.83CPOE+2.93
- 48.8%Third-down rate38.4%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.88Points / drive1.78
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. BAL are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 29/46 | 267 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 6 | 11 | 81 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 7 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 5 | 7 | 29 | 2 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 10/20 | 172 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 31 | 153 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Willis McGahee | 7 | 53 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 5 | 7 | 80 | 1 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 2 | 42 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 2 | 33 | 1 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Reed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.50