2010 · Week 15

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

24·30

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 34°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

BAL -1

Total

45

Model margin

+2.5est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapRavens
  • +0.039EPA / play+0.028
  • 46.2%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.121EPA / dropback+0.133
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.102
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +5.83CPOE+2.93
  • 48.8%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 58.2%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.78
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 50.1 points. BAL are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2NO @ BAL24–17NO
2022 · W9BAL @ NO27–13BAL
2018 · W7NO @ BAL24–23NO
2014 · W12BAL @ NO34–27BAL
2006 · W8BAL @ NO35–22BAL
2002 · W14NO @ BAL37–25NO
1999 · W15NO @ BAL8–31BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–BAL
NOQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:593-12Punt0–0
NOQ1 12:11845Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 9:03961Touchdown7–7
NOQ1 4:4332Punt7–7
BALQ1 3:35958Touchdown7–14
NOQ2 14:2035Punt7–14
BALQ2 13:10539Touchdown7–21
NOQ2 10:055-7Punt7–21
BALQ2 7:12652Punt7–21
NOQ2 3:14992Touchdown14–21
BALQ2 0:2220End of half14–21
BALQ3 15:0031Punt14–21
NOQ3 13:0137Punt14–21
BALQ3 11:3234Punt14–21
NOQ3 10:32620Field goal17–21
BALQ3 6:24864Field goal17–24
NOQ3 2:151275Touchdown24–24
BALQ4 11:34451Field goal24–27
NOQ4 10:03813Punt24–27
BALQ4 6:15729Punt24–27
NOQ4 2:51613Turnover24–27
BALQ4 1:4739Field goal24–30
NOQ4 0:0900End of half24–30

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees29/4626731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas6203.30
Julius Jones4112.80
Reggie Bush4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston611810
Devery Henderson34530
Reggie Bush77360
Jimmy Graham57292
Lance Moore23261
Jeremy Shockey36250
Robert Meachem26170
Pierre Thomas1100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco10/2017220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice311534.91
Willis McGahee7537.60
Joe Flacco122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ray Rice57801
Derrick Mason12420
Ed Dickson22331
T.J. Houshmandzadeh14150
Anquan Boldin1220
Dennis Pitta0100
David Reed0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.50