1999 · Week 15

Final

Jets

New York

QB Ray Lucas

22·21

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Troy Aikman

Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 62°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

DAL -6

Total

35.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.030EPA / play-0.013
  • 38.9%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.047EPA / dropback+0.043
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.079
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.3%
  • 34.6%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 40.9%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.25
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.034EPA / play allowed-0.080

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.8 points. DAL are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5DAL @ NYJ37–22DAL
2023 · W2NYJ @ DAL10–30DAL
2019 · W6DAL @ NYJ22–24NYJ
2015 · W15NYJ @ DAL19–16NYJ
2011 · W1DAL @ NYJ24–27NYJ
2007 · W12NYJ @ DAL3–34DAL
2003 · W4DAL @ NYJ17–6DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–DAL
NYJQ1 15:00641Field goal3–0
DALQ1 11:4139Punt3–0
NYJQ1 10:41957Field goal6–0
DALQ1 6:10936Punt6–0
NYJQ1 1:3637Punt6–0
DALQ2 14:44441Touchdown6–7
NYJQ2 12:44514Punt6–7
DALQ2 11:08513Punt6–7
NYJQ2 9:05425Touchdown13–7
DALQ2 7:42680Touchdown13–14
NYJQ2 4:1631Punt13–14
DALQ2 2:3935Punt13–14
NYJQ2 1:49852Missed field goal13–14
DALQ3 15:00681Touchdown13–21
NYJQ3 11:18759Touchdown19–21
DALQ3 8:1632Punt19–21
NYJQ3 7:1649Turnover on downs19–21
DALQ3 5:2425Turnover19–21
NYJQ3 4:3220Turnover19–21
DALQ3 3:5238Punt19–21
NYJQ3 2:19740Turnover19–21
DALQ4 14:55516Turnover19–21
NYJQ4 11:5336Punt19–21
DALQ4 10:18728Punt19–21
NYJQ4 5:511046Field goal22–21
DALQ4 1:35523Turnover on downs22–21
NYJQ4 0:452-2End of half22–21

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ray Lucas20/3422921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin261134.30
Ray Lucas5102.00
Bernie Parmalee166.00
Keyshawn Johnson1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wayne Chrebet8131080
Keyshawn Johnson69960
Dedric Ward12100
Curtis Martin1460
Bernie Parmalee2360
Blake Spence1121
Fred Baxter0200

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Troy Aikman12/2815812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith191105.80
Raghib Ismail22311.51
Eric Bjornson12020.01
Chris Warren5204.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Brazzell24620
Emmitt Smith34361
Raghib Ismail15230
David LaFleur22180
Jeff Ogden1190
Chris Warren2360
Eric Bjornson1440
Jason Tucker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.43
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.00