Closing spread
DAL -6
Total
35.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.030EPA / play-0.013
- 38.9%Success rate39.6%
- +0.047EPA / dropback+0.043
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.079
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.3%
- 34.6%Third-down rate34.8%
- 40.9%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.28Points / drive1.25
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.034EPA / play allowed-0.080
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.8 points. DAL are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Lucas | 20/34 | 229 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 26 | 113 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Chrebet | 8 | 13 | 108 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 6 | 9 | 96 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Blake Spence | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Fred Baxter | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Aikman | 12/28 | 158 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 19 | 110 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 1 |
| Eric Bjornson | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 1 |
| Chris Warren | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brazzell | 2 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 3 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Raghib Ismail | 1 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| David LaFleur | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jeff Ogden | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Eric Bjornson | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Jason Tucker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.00