2023 · Week 2

Final

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

10·30

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · open

Closing spread

DAL -8.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+5.7est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.230EPA / play+0.121
  • 35.6%Success rate48.0%
  • -0.250EPA / dropback+0.229
  • -0.191EPA / rush-0.061
  • 6.2%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -5.18CPOE+3.68
  • 25.5%Third-down rate49.6%
  • 39.2%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.01Points / drive2.67
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.8 points. DAL are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5DAL @ NYJ37–22DAL
2019 · W6DAL @ NYJ22–24NYJ
2015 · W15NYJ @ DAL19–16NYJ
2011 · W1DAL @ NYJ24–27NYJ
2007 · W12NYJ @ DAL3–34DAL
2003 · W4DAL @ NYJ17–6DAL
1999 · W15NYJ @ DAL22–21NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–DAL
DALQ1 15:001275Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 9:193-2Punt0–7
DALQ1 7:0339Punt0–7
NYJQ1 5:31722Punt0–7
DALQ1 0:541378Field goal0–10
NYJQ2 9:1036Punt0–10
DALQ2 8:1632Punt6–10
NYJQ2 7:21168Touchdown7–10
DALQ2 7:121557Touchdown7–18
NYJQ2 1:52959Field goal10–18
DALQ2 0:0400End of half10–18
NYJQ3 15:0030Punt10–18
DALQ3 13:161155Field goal10–21
NYJQ3 7:24212Turnover10–21
DALQ3 6:4131Field goal10–24
NYJQ3 5:1931Punt10–24
DALQ3 3:441176Field goal10–27
NYJQ4 12:23315Turnover10–27
DALQ4 11:36615Field goal10–30
NYJQ4 8:18718Turnover10–30
DALQ4 6:0236Punt10–30
NYJQ4 3:56616Turnover10–30
DALQ4 3:00211End of half10–30

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson12/2717013

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Wilson5367.20
Breece Hall492.30
Michael Carter284.00
Dalvin Cook471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson28831
Tyler Conklin56500
Allen Lazard24230
Mecole Hardman1160
Dalvin Cook1150
Michael Carter1230
Randall Cobb0100
Breece Hall0200

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott31/3825520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard25722.90
Rico Dowdle7263.70
Deuce Vaughn3165.30
Dak Prescott6142.30
KaVontae Turpin263.00
Peyton Hendershot100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb11131430
Tony Pollard78370
Jalen Tolbert34180
Rico Dowdle11170
Deuce Vaughn33160
Jake Ferguson34111
KaVontae Turpin1190
Michael Gallup1230
Luke Schoonmaker1111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

1.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.1%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+5.70