Closing spread
DAL -8.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+5.7est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.230EPA / play+0.121
- 35.6%Success rate48.0%
- -0.250EPA / dropback+0.229
- -0.191EPA / rush-0.061
- 6.2%Explosive rate8.9%
- -5.18CPOE+3.68
- 25.5%Third-down rate49.6%
- 39.2%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.01Points / drive2.67
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.8 points. DAL are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 12/27 | 170 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 2 | 8 | 83 | 1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 31/38 | 255 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 25 | 72 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 11 | 13 | 143 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 7 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 3 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.1%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.91
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.70