2025 · Week 5

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

37·22

Jets

New York

QB Justin Fields

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 82°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

NYJ -1.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-3.2est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapJets
  • +0.109EPA / play-0.129
  • 47.2%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback-0.137
  • -0.007EPA / rush-0.117
  • 8.3%Explosive rate6.5%
  • +1.89CPOE-4.21
  • 41.3%Third-down rate35.0%
  • 61.6%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
  • 2.53Points / drive1.54
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.8 points. NYJ are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W2NYJ @ DAL10–30DAL
2019 · W6DAL @ NYJ22–24NYJ
2015 · W15NYJ @ DAL19–16NYJ
2011 · W1DAL @ NYJ24–27NYJ
2007 · W12NYJ @ DAL3–34DAL
2003 · W4DAL @ NYJ17–6DAL
1999 · W15NYJ @ DAL22–21NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:001359Field goal0–3
DALQ1 7:43649Field goal3–3
NYJQ1 4:57531Punt3–3
DALQ1 2:501385Touchdown10–3
NYJQ2 11:403-19Punt10–3
DALQ2 9:4231Punt10–3
NYJQ2 8:041169Turnover10–3
DALQ2 2:18890Touchdown17–3
NYJQ2 0:5732Punt17–3
DALQ2 0:29267Touchdown23–3
NYJQ2 0:1500End of half23–3
DALQ3 15:0037Punt23–3
NYJQ3 13:24410Punt23–3
DALQ3 10:52612Punt23–3
NYJQ3 7:50620Turnover on downs23–3
DALQ3 5:16253Touchdown30–3
NYJQ3 4:33639Field goal30–6
DALQ3 0:5734Punt30–6
NYJQ4 14:46525Turnover on downs30–6
DALQ4 13:4533Punt30–6
NYJQ4 12:091173Touchdown30–14
DALQ4 7:56846Touchdown37–14
NYJQ4 4:311070Touchdown37–22
DALQ4 1:4200End of half37–22

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott18/2923740

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams161358.41
Dak Prescott7284.00
Ryan Flournoy2105.00
Jaydon Blue471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ryan Flournoy691140
George Pickens24571
Jake Ferguson79492
Hunter Luepke11100
Javonte Williams1241
Luke Schoonmaker1230
Jalen Tolbert0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields32/4628320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall141138.10
Justin Fields7263.70
Isaiah Davis155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson610711
Mason Taylor912670
Breece Hall45420
Josh Reynolds34290
Jeremy Ruckert44280
Isaiah Davis34280
Arian Smith11140
Allen Lazard1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.00%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.4%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-3.24