Closing spread
NYJ -1.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-3.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play-0.129
- 47.2%Success rate40.5%
- +0.177EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.117
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.5%
- +1.89CPOE-4.21
- 41.3%Third-down rate35.0%
- 61.6%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 2.53Points / drive1.54
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.8 points. NYJ are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 18/29 | 237 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 16 | 135 | 8.4 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jaydon Blue | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Flournoy | 6 | 9 | 114 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 2 | 4 | 57 | 1 |
| Jake Ferguson | 7 | 9 | 49 | 2 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 32/46 | 283 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 14 | 113 | 8.1 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 6 | 10 | 71 | 1 |
| Mason Taylor | 9 | 12 | 67 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Arian Smith | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.4%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.86
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-3.24