Closing spread
NYJ -6.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.072
- 45.1%Success rate40.3%
- +0.144EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.088
- 9.0%Explosive rate6.8%
- +4.08CPOE-3.75
- 39.2%Third-down rate35.5%
- 55.2%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 1.79Points / drive1.44
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.8 points. NYJ are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 23/36 | 342 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 17 | 44 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 6 | 9 | 110 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 5 | 9 | 90 | 1 |
| Dez Bryant | 3 | 8 | 71 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 26/44 | 335 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 6 | 7 | 73 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 4 | 9 | 72 | 1 |
| Santonio Holmes | 6 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 5 | 8 | 61 | 1 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.32