2011 · Week 1

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

24·27

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 70°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NYJ -6.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapJets
  • +0.047EPA / play-0.072
  • 45.1%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.088
  • 9.0%Explosive rate6.8%
  • +4.08CPOE-3.75
  • 39.2%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 55.2%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.44
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.8 points. NYJ are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5DAL @ NYJ37–22DAL
2023 · W2NYJ @ DAL10–30DAL
2019 · W6DAL @ NYJ22–24NYJ
2015 · W15NYJ @ DAL19–16NYJ
2007 · W12NYJ @ DAL3–34DAL
2003 · W4DAL @ NYJ17–6DAL
1999 · W15NYJ @ DAL22–21NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NYJ
DALQ1 15:00974Touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 10:2736Punt7–0
DALQ1 8:25628Punt7–0
NYJQ1 4:311037Punt7–0
DALQ2 14:423-1Punt7–0
NYJQ2 12:4432Punt7–0
DALQ2 11:44416Punt7–0
NYJQ2 9:0833Punt7–0
DALQ2 8:03947Field goal10–0
NYJQ2 3:16987Touchdown10–7
DALQ2 0:3700End of half10–7
NYJQ3 15:0034Punt10–7
DALQ3 12:45873Touchdown17–7
NYJQ3 8:05964Field goal17–10
DALQ3 4:01636Punt17–10
NYJQ3 0:49218Turnover17–10
DALQ4 15:0021Touchdown24–10
NYJQ4 14:50784Touchdown24–17
DALQ4 11:56677Turnover24–17
NYJQ4 8:59644Turnover24–17
DALQ4 6:083-2Opp touchdown24–24
DALQ4 5:00421Punt24–24
NYJQ4 2:1669Punt24–24
DALQ4 0:5910Turnover24–24
NYJQ4 0:4932Field goal24–27
DALQ4 0:27521Turnover24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo23/3634221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones17442.61
Tony Romo393.00
Kevin Ogletree177.00
Tashard Choice341.30
DeMarco Murray200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten691100
Miles Austin59901
Dez Bryant38711
Felix Jones34220
John Phillips22190
DeMarco Murray11130
Kevin Ogletree22120
Tashard Choice1150

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez26/4433521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene10262.60
LaDainian Tomlinson5163.20
Mark Sanchez133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
LaDainian Tomlinson67730
Plaxico Burress49721
Santonio Holmes610700
Dustin Keller58611
Jeff Cumberland12330
Derrick Mason36190
Shonn Greene1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

4.72%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.32