2015 · Week 15

Final

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

19·16

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Matt Cassel

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

NYJ -3

Total

41

Model margin

-1.1est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.025EPA / play-0.073
  • 41.9%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.126EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.077
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -1.27CPOE-0.85
  • 40.9%Third-down rate34.0%
  • 70.2%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
  • 1.90Points / drive1.31
  • 2.1%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.8 points. DAL are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5DAL @ NYJ37–22DAL
2023 · W2NYJ @ DAL10–30DAL
2019 · W6DAL @ NYJ22–24NYJ
2011 · W1DAL @ NYJ24–27NYJ
2007 · W12NYJ @ DAL3–34DAL
2003 · W4DAL @ NYJ17–6DAL
1999 · W15NYJ @ DAL22–21NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–DAL
DALQ1 15:00870Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 10:4933Punt0–3
DALQ1 9:4033Turnover0–3
NYJQ1 8:29836Turnover on downs0–3
DALQ1 3:1334Punt0–3
NYJQ1 2:18760Touchdown6–3
DALQ1 0:303-3Punt6–3
NYJQ2 13:2139Punt6–3
DALQ2 11:1633Turnover6–3
NYJQ2 9:45416Field goal9–3
DALQ2 7:01417Punt9–3
NYJQ2 4:42413Punt9–3
DALQ2 1:47440Touchdown9–10
NYJQ2 1:17738Missed field goal9–10
NYJQ3 15:001143Punt9–10
DALQ3 9:21776Turnover9–10
NYJQ3 5:142-1Turnover9–10
DALQ3 4:2632Field goal9–13
NYJQ3 3:44418Punt9–13
DALQ3 1:45623Punt9–13
NYJQ4 14:051080Touchdown16–13
DALQ4 8:581166Field goal16–16
NYJQ4 1:55758Field goal19–16
DALQ4 0:3628Turnover19–16
NYJQ4 0:1100End of half19–16

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick26/3929911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory13372.80
Bilal Powell6254.21
Ryan Fitzpatrick5132.60
Stevan Ridley2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall47740
Eric Decker610551
Bilal Powell77540
Kenbrell Thompkins25500
Quincy Enunwa44490
Kellen Davis1290
Chris Ivory1250
Stevan Ridley1230

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kellen Moore15/2515813
Matt Cassel3/83701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren McFadden161006.30
Lucky Whitehead23216.00
Robert Turbin310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant49501
Jason Witten55490
Cole Beasley37370
James Hanna11170
Brice Butler11160
Darren McFadden23130
Terrance Williams25130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.2%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.08