Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
41
Model margin
-1.1est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.073
- 41.9%Success rate43.9%
- +0.126EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.077
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.6%
- -1.27CPOE-0.85
- 40.9%Third-down rate34.0%
- 70.2%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
- 1.90Points / drive1.31
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.8 points. DAL are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 26/39 | 299 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 4 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 6 | 10 | 55 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 7 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Kenbrell Thompkins | 2 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Moore | 15/25 | 158 | 1 | 3 |
| Matt Cassel | 3/8 | 37 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren McFadden | 16 | 100 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 9 | 50 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Darren McFadden | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.57
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.08