Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play-0.155
- 48.7%Success rate37.3%
- +0.192EPA / dropback-0.119
- -0.017EPA / rush-0.216
- 11.1%Explosive rate6.9%
- +1.10CPOE+0.20
- 47.2%Third-down rate30.8%
- 62.1%Red-zone TD rate48.5%
- 2.45Points / drive1.20
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.8 points. NYJ are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 28/40 | 278 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 28 | 105 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavon Austin | 5 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 23/32 | 338 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 14 | 50 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 5 | 8 | 125 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | 6 | 9 | 98 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Vyncint Smith | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.0%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.90
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.16