2019 · Week 6

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

22·24

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 66°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapJets
  • +0.111EPA / play-0.155
  • 48.7%Success rate37.3%
  • +0.192EPA / dropback-0.119
  • -0.017EPA / rush-0.216
  • 11.1%Explosive rate6.9%
  • +1.10CPOE+0.20
  • 47.2%Third-down rate30.8%
  • 62.1%Red-zone TD rate48.5%
  • 2.45Points / drive1.20
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.8 points. NYJ are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5DAL @ NYJ37–22DAL
2023 · W2NYJ @ DAL10–30DAL
2015 · W15NYJ @ DAL19–16NYJ
2011 · W1DAL @ NYJ24–27NYJ
2007 · W12NYJ @ DAL3–34DAL
2003 · W4DAL @ NYJ17–6DAL
1999 · W15NYJ @ DAL22–21NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00418Punt0–0
DALQ1 12:4035Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:181655Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 3:24848Field goal3–7
NYJQ2 14:5645Punt3–7
DALQ2 13:37516Punt3–7
NYJQ2 11:15412Punt3–7
DALQ2 8:321054Turnover on downs3–13
NYJQ2 3:46192Touchdown3–14
DALQ2 3:3438Punt3–14
NYJQ2 2:00665Touchdown3–21
DALQ2 0:27431Field goal6–21
DALQ3 15:001471Field goal9–21
NYJQ3 7:501074Turnover9–21
DALQ3 2:31952Missed field goal9–21
NYJQ4 14:0968Punt9–21
DALQ4 11:211169Touchdown16–21
NYJQ4 6:30657Field goal16–24
DALQ4 3:241445Touchdown22–24
NYJQ4 0:4300End of half22–24

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott28/4027800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott281053.81
Tony Pollard3134.30
Dak Prescott3113.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tavon Austin56640
Jason Witten57570
Ezekiel Elliott56480
Michael Gallup47480
Cedrick Wilson Jr.56460
Blake Jarwin2460
Dalton Schultz1160
Amari Cooper1230

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold23/3233821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell14503.61
Bilal Powell155.00
Sam Darnold510.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen581251
Jamison Crowder69980
Demaryius Thomas44620
Ryan Griffin33281
Ty Montgomery33170
Vyncint Smith1150
Le'Veon Bell1130
Bilal Powell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.8%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

4.58%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.0%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.16