Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
37
Model margin
+0.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.085EPA / play-0.013
- 39.6%Success rate41.4%
- -0.053EPA / dropback+0.040
- -0.123EPA / rush-0.086
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- 36.8%Third-down rate40.0%
- 50.3%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 1.23Points / drive1.47
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.125EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.8 points. NYJ are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 11/23 | 165 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 24 | 127 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Aveion Cason | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 6 | -2 | -0.3 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 21/29 | 219 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 21 | 64 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.19
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+0.08