Closing spread
DAL -14
Total
47.5
Model margin
+7.5est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play+0.109
- 41.4%Success rate45.8%
- -0.065EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.071
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.6%
- +0.41CPOE+4.58
- 37.1%Third-down rate43.2%
- 41.2%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.32Points / drive2.23
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.8 points. DAL are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 68 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 10:16 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 10:07 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 9:55 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 7:40 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 6:04 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 4:55 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 3:45 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 0:48 | 7 | 56 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 12:09 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–14 |
| DAL | Q2 10:05 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 7:50 | 4 | 14 | Opp touchdown | 0–21 |
| NYJ | Q2 6:18 | 12 | 57 | Field goal | 3–21 |
| DAL | Q2 0:39 | 2 | 3 | End of half | 3–21 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–21 |
| DAL | Q3 13:34 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 3–21 |
| NYJ | Q3 8:26 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–21 |
| DAL | Q3 7:30 | 4 | 25 | Field goal | 3–24 |
| NYJ | Q3 5:30 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–24 |
| DAL | Q3 4:46 | 14 | 71 | Field goal | 3–27 |
| NYJ | Q4 11:23 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–27 |
| DAL | Q4 10:47 | 7 | 71 | Touchdown | 3–34 |
| NYJ | Q4 6:12 | 8 | 57 | Turnover on downs | 3–34 |
| DAL | Q4 3:51 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 3–34 |
| NYJ | Q4 0:20 | 1 | 11 | End of half | 3–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Clemens | 12/27 | 142 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 17 | 40 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 21/28 | 195 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 18 | 103 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Julius Jones | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.98
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.46