2007 · Week 12

Final

Jets

New York

QB Kellen Clemens

3·34

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Texas Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

DAL -14

Total

47.5

Model margin

+7.5est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.075EPA / play+0.109
  • 41.4%Success rate45.8%
  • -0.065EPA / dropback+0.230
  • -0.088EPA / rush-0.071
  • 7.7%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +0.41CPOE+4.58
  • 37.1%Third-down rate43.2%
  • 41.2%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 1.32Points / drive2.23
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.8 points. DAL are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5DAL @ NYJ37–22DAL
2023 · W2NYJ @ DAL10–30DAL
2019 · W6DAL @ NYJ22–24NYJ
2015 · W15NYJ @ DAL19–16NYJ
2011 · W1DAL @ NYJ24–27NYJ
2003 · W4DAL @ NYJ17–6DAL
1999 · W15NYJ @ DAL22–21NYJ

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kellen Clemens12/2714201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones17402.40
Leon Washington2147.00
Kellen Clemens263.00

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo21/2819521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber181035.71
Julius Jones14644.60
Tony Romo273.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

3.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.5%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.92
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.98
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.46