Closing spread
DET -4.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.035EPA / play-0.057
- 40.6%Success rate38.8%
- +0.016EPA / dropback+0.024
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.222
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.4%
- 36.1%Third-down rate35.5%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.38Points / drive1.19
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.063EPA / play allowed-0.055
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. DET are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 22/30 | 171 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 29 | 185 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Derek Loville | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 7 | 11 | 65 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Loville | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 21/39 | 267 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Greg Hill | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germane Crowell | 5 | 9 | 95 | 0 |
| Herman Moore | 4 | 6 | 62 | 1 |
| David Sloan | 5 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 4 | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.83