2019 · Week 16

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB David Blough

17·27

Broncos

Denver

QB Drew Lock

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

DEN -9.5

Total

40

Model margin

+13.6est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.039EPA / play-0.054
  • 41.5%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.049EPA / dropback-0.019
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.110
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -3.54CPOE-2.47
  • 41.4%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
  • 1.73Points / drive1.47
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.1 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15DEN @ DET17–42DET
2021 · W14DET @ DEN10–38DEN
2015 · W3DEN @ DET24–12DEN
2011 · W8DET @ DEN45–10DET
2007 · W9DEN @ DET7–44DET
2003 · W4DET @ DEN16–20DEN
1999 · W16DEN @ DET17–7DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–DEN
DETQ1 15:001073Field goal3–0
DENQ1 8:5933Punt3–0
DETQ1 7:5530Punt3–0
DENQ1 5:57748Punt3–0
DETQ1 1:49726Punt3–0
DENQ2 13:3245Opp touchdown10–0
DENQ2 10:521065Touchdown10–7
DETQ2 6:0431Punt10–7
DENQ2 5:051042Field goal10–10
DETQ2 0:251-3End of half10–10
DENQ3 15:001045Field goal10–13
DETQ3 10:231175Touchdown17–13
DENQ3 3:511262Touchdown17–20
DETQ4 13:08514Punt17–20
DENQ4 10:56761Touchdown17–27
DETQ4 6:394-6Punt17–27
DENQ4 5:1939Punt17–27
DETQ4 2:55611Turnover on downs17–27
DENQ4 1:47311End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Blough12/2411710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kerryon Johnson10424.20
Bo Scarbrough8344.30
Ty Johnson3206.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Golladay612661
Danny Amendola23210
Logan Thomas23170
Jesse James11120
Kerryon Johnson1110
Chris Lacy0100
Travis Fulgham0200

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock25/3319210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay191095.71
Royce Freeman9283.11
Drew Lock4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DaeSean Hamilton66651
Tim Patrick56480
Courtland Sutton510410
Jeff Heuerman22130
Noah Fant22100
Phillip Lindsay2390
Royce Freeman2290
Devontae Booker1220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.53.8%5.7%2.0%2.8%4.5%3.4%3.7%3.2%3.1%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

81.7%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.64
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+10.17
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+13.55