Closing spread
DEN -9.5
Total
40
Model margin
+13.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.039EPA / play-0.054
- 41.5%Success rate40.3%
- +0.049EPA / dropback-0.019
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.110
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- -3.54CPOE-2.47
- 41.4%Third-down rate32.0%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
- 1.73Points / drive1.47
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Blough | 12/24 | 117 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerryon Johnson | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Bo Scarbrough | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 6 | 12 | 66 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Lacy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Fulgham | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 25/33 | 192 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 19 | 109 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Royce Freeman | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Drew Lock | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DaeSean Hamilton | 6 | 6 | 65 | 1 |
| Tim Patrick | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 10 | 41 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
81.7%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.64
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+10.17
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+13.55