Closing spread
DET -5.5
Total
49
Model margin
+2.5est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play+0.058
- 42.3%Success rate45.9%
- -0.005EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.014
- 8.6%Explosive rate11.2%
- +3.74CPOE+1.34
- 36.8%Third-down rate42.4%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.87Points / drive2.29
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. DET are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 18/32 | 223 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 7 | 6 | 0.9 | 1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Lucas Krull | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 3 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Brandon Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 24/34 | 278 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 11 | 100 | 9.1 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 17 | 85 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 9 | 112 | 1 |
| Sam LaPorta | 5 | 6 | 56 | 3 |
| Jameson Williams | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.52