2023 · Week 15

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

17·42

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -5.5

Total

49

Model margin

+2.5est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapLions
  • -0.046EPA / play+0.058
  • 42.3%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.005EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.014
  • 8.6%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +3.74CPOE+1.34
  • 36.8%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 59.0%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.29
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.1 points. DET are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W14DET @ DEN10–38DEN
2019 · W16DET @ DEN17–27DEN
2015 · W3DEN @ DET24–12DEN
2011 · W8DET @ DEN45–10DET
2007 · W9DEN @ DET7–44DET
2003 · W4DET @ DEN16–20DEN
1999 · W16DEN @ DET17–7DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–DET
DETQ1 15:00525Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:58441Turnover0–0
DETQ1 11:383-2Punt0–0
DENQ1 9:3331Punt0–0
DETQ1 8:31734Punt0–0
DENQ1 5:04635Punt0–0
DETQ1 1:38880Touchdown0–7
DENQ2 12:313-12Punt0–7
DETQ2 10:58661Touchdown0–14
DENQ2 8:15711Punt0–14
DETQ2 4:211181Touchdown0–21
DENQ2 0:1900End of half0–21
DENQ3 15:001131Touchdown7–21
DETQ3 10:34875Touchdown7–28
DENQ3 7:011274Field goal10–28
DETQ3 0:43759Touchdown10–35
DENQ4 12:12519Punt10–35
DETQ4 10:593-9Punt10–35
DENQ4 9:18862Touchdown17–35
DETQ4 6:28844Touchdown17–42
DENQ4 2:21426End of half17–42

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson18/3222310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Samaje Perine6376.20
Javonte Williams12272.30
Marvin Mims Jr.11111.00
Russell Wilson760.91
Jaleel McLaughlin221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy37740
Courtland Sutton56710
Adam Trautman13240
Lucas Krull13180
Lil'Jordan Humphrey34161
Jaleel McLaughlin23160
Samaje Perine11110
Brandon Johnson0100
Marvin Mims Jr.0200
Javonte Williams22-70

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff24/3427850

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs111009.11
David Montgomery17855.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown791121
Sam LaPorta56563
Jameson Williams47470
Josh Reynolds23410
Kalif Raymond11120
Jahmyr Gibbs2281
Donovan Peoples-Jones1150
David Montgomery23-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

3.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.52