Closing spread
DET -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play-0.089
- 44.2%Success rate39.5%
- +0.101EPA / dropback-0.100
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.078
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.3%
- +1.23CPOE-6.16
- 35.2%Third-down rate30.8%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.98Points / drive1.16
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 21/30 | 267 | 3 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 1/2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 13 | 58 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Keiland Williams | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 6 | 7 | 125 | 1 |
| Titus Young | 4 | 5 | 66 | 1 |
| Tony Scheffler | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| Nate Burleson | 4 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Maurice Stovall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 18/39 | 172 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 6 | 63 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 10 | 63 | 6.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 6 | 12 | 72 | 1 |
| Eddie Royal | 6 | 13 | 41 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 1 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.91