2011 · Week 8

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

45·10

Broncos

Denver

QB Tim Tebow

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.036EPA / play-0.089
  • 44.2%Success rate39.5%
  • +0.101EPA / dropback-0.100
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.078
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +1.23CPOE-6.16
  • 35.2%Third-down rate30.8%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.98Points / drive1.16
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.1 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15DEN @ DET17–42DET
2021 · W14DET @ DEN10–38DEN
2019 · W16DET @ DEN17–27DEN
2015 · W3DEN @ DET24–12DEN
2007 · W9DEN @ DET7–44DET
2003 · W4DET @ DEN16–20DEN
1999 · W16DEN @ DET17–7DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–DEN
DENQ1 15:00764Field goal0–3
DETQ1 11:20680Touchdown7–3
DENQ1 8:403-6Punt7–3
DETQ1 7:28411Punt7–3
DENQ1 4:52514Punt7–3
DETQ1 2:18642Field goal10–3
DENQ2 14:4433Punt10–3
DETQ2 13:47924Punt10–3
DENQ2 9:5234Punt10–3
DETQ2 8:50868Touchdown17–3
DENQ2 4:1139Punt17–3
DETQ2 2:05749Touchdown24–3
DENQ2 0:2948Turnover on downs24–3
DETQ3 15:0038Punt24–3
DENQ3 14:042-12Opp touchdown31–3
DENQ3 13:2632Punt31–3
DETQ3 11:38520Punt31–3
DENQ3 8:0733Punt31–3
DETQ3 7:07262Touchdown38–3
DENQ3 6:18846Turnover on downs38–3
DETQ3 3:0835Punt38–3
DENQ3 1:301248Opp touchdown45–3
DENQ4 12:04980Touchdown45–10
DETQ4 8:1967Punt45–10
DENQ4 5:4914Turnover45–10
DETQ4 5:3931Punt45–10
DENQ4 4:051145Turnover on downs45–10
DETQ4 0:3600End of half45–10

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford21/3026730
Shaun Hill1/2500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Morris13584.51
Keiland Williams11252.30
Matthew Stafford12121.00
Nate Burleson199.00
Stefan Logan111.00
Shaun Hill1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson671251
Titus Young45661
Tony Scheffler33381
Nate Burleson47230
Brandon Pettigrew3480
Maurice Morris1370
Keiland Williams1150
Will Heller0100
Maurice Stovall0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Tebow18/3917211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno14694.90
Lance Ball66310.50
Tim Tebow10636.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker612721
Eddie Royal613410
Matt Willis13280
Demaryius Thomas13100
Dante Rosario1170
Daniel Fells1150
Knowshon Moreno1250
Lance Ball1340
Julius Thomas0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.5%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.91