2021 · Week 14

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

10·38

Broncos

Denver

QB Teddy Bridgewater

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

DEN -13

Total

42

Model margin

+2.8est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.061EPA / play+0.021
  • 42.1%Success rate44.7%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback+0.100
  • -0.123EPA / rush-0.093
  • 9.0%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -0.05CPOE+2.34
  • 34.7%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 65.7%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 1.73Points / drive1.89
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.1 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15DEN @ DET17–42DET
2019 · W16DET @ DEN17–27DEN
2015 · W3DEN @ DET24–12DEN
2011 · W8DET @ DEN45–10DET
2007 · W9DEN @ DET7–44DET
2003 · W4DET @ DEN16–20DEN
1999 · W16DEN @ DET17–7DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–DEN
DENQ1 15:001261Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 9:463-3Punt0–7
DENQ1 8:091274Touchdown0–14
DETQ1 0:53775Touchdown7–14
DENQ2 12:3133Punt7–14
DETQ2 11:441057Field goal10–14
DENQ2 6:34514Punt10–14
DETQ2 3:03617Punt10–14
DENQ2 1:05839Field goal10–17
DETQ3 15:0029Turnover10–17
DENQ3 14:11646Touchdown10–24
DETQ3 11:0348Turnover on downs10–24
DENQ3 8:47433Touchdown10–31
DETQ3 6:341777Turnover on downs10–31
DENQ4 13:1330Punt10–31
DETQ4 11:28531Turnover10–31
DENQ4 8:591488Touchdown10–38
DETQ4 1:51945End of half10–38

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff24/3921511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Craig Reynolds11837.50
Godwin Igwebuike8253.10
Jared Goff2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown812730
Josh Reynolds35520
Kalif Raymond45311
Brock Wright35200
Shane Zylstra26180
Craig Reynolds22160
Tom Kennedy1170
KhaDarel Hodge0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater18/2517920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon241114.62
Javonte Williams15734.91

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Noah Fant44510
Jerry Jeudy56470
Albert Okwuegbunam55411
Tim Patrick25210
Javonte Williams12101
Courtland Sutton1290
Diontae Spencer0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.63%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.84