Closing spread
DEN -13
Total
42
Model margin
+2.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.061EPA / play+0.021
- 42.1%Success rate44.7%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.100
- -0.123EPA / rush-0.093
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.1%
- -0.05CPOE+2.34
- 34.7%Third-down rate38.3%
- 65.7%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.73Points / drive1.89
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 24/39 | 215 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Reynolds | 11 | 83 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Godwin Igwebuike | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 8 | 12 | 73 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 4 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Brock Wright | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Shane Zylstra | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Tom Kennedy | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 18/25 | 179 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 24 | 111 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Javonte Williams | 15 | 73 | 4.9 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Fant | 4 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 5 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| Tim Patrick | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Diontae Spencer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.63%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.84