Closing spread
DET -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play-0.065
- 42.8%Success rate42.9%
- +0.071EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.134
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.6%
- +1.55CPOE+1.53
- 40.0%Third-down rate32.3%
- 49.6%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
- 1.46Points / drive1.58
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. DET are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 29/46 | 262 | 1 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 3/4 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Selvin Young | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 16/31 | 252 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 17 | 71 | 4.2 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 1 |
| Aveion Cason | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Shaun McDonald | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.55