2003 · Week 4

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Joey Harrington

16·20

Broncos

Denver

QB Jake Plummer

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DEN -12

Total

44

Model margin

+4.9est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.156EPA / play+0.045
  • 36.7%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.144EPA / dropback+0.043
  • -0.178EPA / rush+0.047
  • 5.6%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 34.9%Third-down rate39.9%
  • 47.3%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 1.04Points / drive1.96
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%
  • -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.073

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.1 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15DEN @ DET17–42DET
2021 · W14DET @ DEN10–38DEN
2019 · W16DET @ DEN17–27DEN
2015 · W3DEN @ DET24–12DEN
2011 · W8DET @ DEN45–10DET
2007 · W9DEN @ DET7–44DET
1999 · W16DEN @ DET17–7DEN

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joey Harrington15/3314920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shawn Bryson13735.60
Olandis Gary7426.00
Avon Cobourne11919.00
Joey Harrington3103.30

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer25/3427720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jake Plummer6406.70
Mike Anderson7213.00
Quentin Griffin9121.30
Ashley Lelie166.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +126.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.1%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.43
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.92