2003 · Week 4

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Joey Harrington

16·20

Broncos

Denver

QB Jake Plummer

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DEN -12

Total

44

Model margin

+4.9est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.156EPA / play+0.045
  • 36.7%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.144EPA / dropback+0.043
  • -0.178EPA / rush+0.047
  • 5.6%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 34.9%Third-down rate39.9%
  • 47.3%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 1.04Points / drive1.96
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%
  • -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.073

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.1 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15DEN @ DET17–42DET
2021 · W14DET @ DEN10–38DEN
2019 · W16DET @ DEN17–27DEN
2015 · W3DEN @ DET24–12DEN
2011 · W8DET @ DEN45–10DET
2007 · W9DEN @ DET7–44DET
1999 · W16DEN @ DET17–7DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–DEN
DETQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:2569Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:08573Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 7:07980Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 1:5635Punt7–7
DENQ1 0:17951Touchdown7–14
DETQ2 10:36945Field goal10–14
DENQ2 6:00866Turnover10–14
DETQ2 1:05532End of half10–14
DENQ3 15:0038Punt10–14
DETQ3 13:2865Punt10–14
DENQ3 11:2132Punt10–14
DETQ3 10:2779Punt10–14
DENQ3 6:00967Field goal10–17
DETQ3 1:17780Touchdown16–17
DENQ4 13:3648Punt16–17
DETQ4 11:19921Punt16–17
DENQ4 7:421043Field goal16–20
DETQ4 3:13812Turnover on downs16–20
DENQ4 1:2100End of half16–20

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joey Harrington15/3314920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shawn Bryson13735.60
Olandis Gary7426.00
Avon Cobourne11919.00
Joey Harrington3103.30

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer25/3427720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jake Plummer6406.70
Mike Anderson7213.00
Quentin Griffin9121.30
Ashley Lelie166.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +126.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.1%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.43
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.92