Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
45
Model margin
+2.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.019
- 40.5%Success rate44.9%
- -0.041EPA / dropback+0.045
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.160
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.6%
- -1.92CPOE-0.09
- 35.2%Third-down rate38.4%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.47Points / drive1.90
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. DET are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 31/42 | 324 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Juwan Thompson | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 9 | 13 | 92 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 6 | 9 | 87 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 5 | 9 | 28 | 1 |
| Jordan Norwood | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 31/45 | 282 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 10 | 6 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 8 | 13 | 77 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 8 | 10 | 66 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 5 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.39