2015 · Week 3

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

24·12

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DEN -3

Total

45

Model margin

+2.4est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapLions
  • -0.070EPA / play-0.019
  • 40.5%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.041EPA / dropback+0.045
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.160
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -1.92CPOE-0.09
  • 35.2%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 51.4%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.90
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.1 points. DET are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15DEN @ DET17–42DET
2021 · W14DET @ DEN10–38DEN
2019 · W16DET @ DEN17–27DEN
2011 · W8DET @ DEN45–10DET
2007 · W9DEN @ DET7–44DET
2003 · W4DET @ DEN16–20DEN
1999 · W16DEN @ DET17–7DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–DET
DETQ1 15:003-6Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:4139Punt0–0
DETQ1 11:46525Punt0–0
DENQ1 8:39721Punt0–0
DETQ1 4:5666Turnover0–0
DENQ1 2:14523Turnover0–0
DETQ2 14:55724Punt0–0
DENQ2 11:191280Touchdown7–0
DETQ2 4:541064Touchdown7–6
DENQ2 1:03780Touchdown14–6
DETQ2 0:0500End of half14–6
DENQ3 15:0054Turnover14–6
DETQ3 13:00524Touchdown14–12
DENQ3 10:51739Punt14–12
DETQ3 7:40637Punt14–12
DENQ3 3:59520Punt14–12
DETQ3 1:00611Punt14–12
DENQ4 13:55314Punt14–12
DETQ4 11:3434Turnover14–12
DENQ4 10:12414Field goal17–12
DETQ4 7:50837Turnover17–12
DENQ4 3:37551Touchdown24–12
DETQ4 2:281365Turnover on downs24–12
DENQ4 0:3000End of half24–12

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning31/4232421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson8182.30
Ronnie Hillman7131.91
Juwan Thompson3113.70
Peyton Manning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas913921
Emmanuel Sanders69870
Bennie Fowler44500
Owen Daniels59281
Jordan Norwood33270
Virgil Green11260
C.J. Anderson1190
Ronnie Hillman1130
Andre Caldwell1120

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford31/4528212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ameer Abdullah8232.90
Joique Bell1060.61
Matthew Stafford1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson813770
Theo Riddick810660
Eric Ebron45610
Golden Tate57570
Ameer Abdullah25191
Lance Moore23100
Joique Bell11-20
Matthew Stafford11-60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.00%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.5%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.14
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.39