Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play-0.084
- 44.6%Success rate38.6%
- +0.128EPA / dropback-0.016
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.207
- 10.9%Explosive rate6.4%
- 44.4%Third-down rate35.7%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.72Points / drive1.14
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.008EPA / play allowed-0.039
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 12–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. NYG are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 13:49 | 14 | 60 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| MIN | Q1 5:14 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NYG | Q1 1:26 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIN | Q2 14:47 | 6 | 83 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| NYG | Q2 11:59 | 8 | 18 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| MIN | Q2 7:50 | 6 | 43 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| NYG | Q2 5:37 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–6 |
| MIN | Q2 4:09 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 14–6 |
| NYG | Q2 0:27 | 4 | 18 | End of half | 14–6 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 43 | Missed field goal | 14–6 |
| MIN | Q3 9:17 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 14–6 |
| NYG | Q3 4:46 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 20–6 |
| MIN | Q3 4:37 | 1 | 27 | Touchdown | 21–6 |
| NYG | Q3 4:29 | 10 | 45 | Field goal | 21–9 |
| MIN | Q3 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 28–9 |
| NYG | Q4 14:44 | 18 | 74 | Touchdown | 28–17 |
| MIN | Q4 7:45 | 1 | 70 | Touchdown | 34–17 |
| NYG | Q4 7:23 | 8 | 50 | Turnover on downs | 34–17 |
| MIN | Q4 5:02 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 34–17 |
| NYG | Q4 4:24 | 5 | 14 | Turnover on downs | 34–17 |
| MIN | Q4 3:51 | 5 | 17 | Turnover | 34–17 |
| NYG | Q4 1:03 | 2 | 1 | End of half | 34–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 10/21 | 185 | 0 | 2 |
| Randy Moss | 1/1 | 27 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 16 | 146 | 9.1 | 1 |
| Leroy Hoard | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Jeff George | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cris Carter | 5 | 6 | 131 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 3 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Robert Smith | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 31/51 | 297 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Montgomery | 19 | 55 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 9 | 15 | 99 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 5 | 10 | 62 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 8 | 12 | 56 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 3 | 4 | 21 | 1 |
| David Patten | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Howard Cross | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.76