2016 · Week 4

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

10·24

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Bradford

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapVikings
  • -0.074EPA / play-0.042
  • 40.8%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.035EPA / dropback+0.075
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.253
  • 7.3%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -1.63CPOE+3.80
  • 36.0%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
  • 1.46Points / drive1.65
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 12–7 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. MIN are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16MIN @ NYG16–13MIN
2024 · W1MIN @ NYG28–6MIN
2022 · playoffsNYG @ MIN31–24NYG
2022 · W16NYG @ MIN24–27MIN
2019 · W5MIN @ NYG28–10MIN
2015 · W16NYG @ MIN17–49MIN
2013 · W7MIN @ NYG7–23NYG
2010 · W14NYG @ MIN21–3NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–MIN
NYGQ1 15:00837Punt0–0
MINQ1 10:4437Punt0–0
MINQ1 9:10733Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 6:28522Punt0–7
MINQ1 4:12427Punt0–7
NYGQ1 2:4749Punt0–7
MINQ1 0:5334Punt0–7
NYGQ2 14:45515Punt0–7
MINQ2 12:551075Touchdown0–14
NYGQ2 7:59538Punt0–14
MINQ2 4:5838Punt0–14
NYGQ2 2:461044Field goal3–14
MINQ2 0:0200End of half3–14
MINQ3 15:00747Missed field goal3–14
NYGQ3 10:5933Turnover3–14
MINQ3 9:55517Field goal3–17
NYGQ3 7:3937Punt3–17
MINQ3 6:541237Punt3–17
NYGQ3 0:25689Touchdown10–17
MINQ4 13:38876Touchdown10–24
NYGQ4 9:20939Turnover on downs10–24
MINQ4 6:11732Punt10–24
NYGQ4 3:28836Turnover on downs10–24
MINQ4 1:4635End of half10–24

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning25/4526101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Orleans Darkwa12484.01
Bobby Rainey4225.50
Paul Perkins284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Paul Perkins23720
Victor Cruz59500
Bobby Rainey79430
Will Tye46430
Sterling Shepard47300
Odell Beckham Jr.39230
Orleans Darkwa0200

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford26/3626210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon18854.71
Sam Bradford461.50
Matt Asiata661.01
Cordarrelle Patterson122.00
Stefon Diggs1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles D. Johnson24700
Kyle Rudolph57551
Stefon Diggs57470
Cordarrelle Patterson56380
Adam Thielen23210
Matt Asiata22120
Jerick McKinnon35100
MyCole Pruitt1170
Rhett Ellison1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.1%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.50