Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.042
- 40.8%Success rate42.5%
- -0.035EPA / dropback+0.075
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.253
- 7.3%Explosive rate7.1%
- -1.63CPOE+3.80
- 36.0%Third-down rate38.4%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
- 1.46Points / drive1.65
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 12–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. MIN are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 25/45 | 261 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orleans Darkwa | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Bobby Rainey | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Perkins | 2 | 3 | 72 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 5 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 7 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Will Tye | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 3 | 9 | 23 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 26/36 | 262 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 18 | 85 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Sam Bradford | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles D. Johnson | 2 | 4 | 70 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 5 | 7 | 55 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 5 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.50