Closing spread
MIN -7
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.022
- 44.0%Success rate40.7%
- +0.106EPA / dropback+0.050
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.013
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.6%
- -1.12CPOE+2.87
- 37.1%Third-down rate39.2%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 2.02Points / drive1.94
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 12–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. MIN are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 15/29 | 234 | 1 | 3 |
| Ryan Nassib | 5/5 | 68 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 14 | 74 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rueben Randle | 2 | 5 | 80 | 1 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 3 | 62 | 0 |
| Myles White | 2 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Will Tye | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Matt LaCosse | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Jerome Cunningham | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Ben Edwards | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 15/25 | 168 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 22 | 104 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 7 | 89 | 12.7 | 2 |
| Matt Asiata | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarius Wright | 3 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 3 | 53 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.93
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.42