2015 · Week 16

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

17·49

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

TCF Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 13°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

MIN -7

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.4est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapVikings
  • +0.025EPA / play+0.022
  • 44.0%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.106EPA / dropback+0.050
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.013
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -1.12CPOE+2.87
  • 37.1%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.94
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 12–7 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. MIN are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16MIN @ NYG16–13MIN
2024 · W1MIN @ NYG28–6MIN
2022 · playoffsNYG @ MIN31–24NYG
2022 · W16NYG @ MIN24–27MIN
2019 · W5MIN @ NYG28–10MIN
2016 · W4NYG @ MIN10–24MIN
2013 · W7MIN @ NYG7–23NYG
2010 · W14NYG @ MIN21–3NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–MIN
MINQ1 15:0042Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:3333Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:35831Punt0–0
NYGQ1 8:36216Turnover0–0
MINQ1 7:543-4Punt0–0
NYGQ1 6:25512Punt0–0
MINQ1 3:52740Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 0:083-6Punt0–3
MINQ2 13:06649Touchdown0–10
NYGQ2 11:02866Field goal3–10
MINQ2 8:22613Punt3–10
NYGQ2 5:1639Opp touchdown3–16
NYGQ2 4:00712Punt3–16
MINQ2 1:05623Field goal3–19
NYGQ2 0:0400End of half3–19
NYGQ3 15:00413Punt3–19
MINQ3 12:41858Field goal3–22
NYGQ3 7:3510Turnover3–22
MINQ3 7:2224Touchdown3–29
NYGQ3 6:4037Punt3–29
MINQ3 5:18547Field goal3–32
NYGQ3 1:51280Touchdown10–32
MINQ3 1:02618Touchdown10–39
NYGQ4 13:3149Turnover on downs10–39
MINQ4 12:18411Field goal10–42
NYGQ4 9:341165Turnover on downs10–42
MINQ4 5:19380Touchdown10–49
NYGQ4 3:36677Touchdown17–49
MINQ4 1:5400End of half17–49

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning15/2923413
Ryan Nassib5/56810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings14745.30
Orleans Darkwa199.00
Andre Williams351.70
Shane Vereen133.00
Eli Manning100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rueben Randle25801
Rashad Jennings23620
Myles White24341
Will Tye34280
Matt LaCosse33220
Shane Vereen25210
Jerome Cunningham22210
Orleans Darkwa11150
Ben Edwards1290
Dwayne Harris1260
Hakeem Nicks1340

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater15/2516810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson221044.71
Jerick McKinnon78912.72
Matt Asiata5142.80
Teddy Bridgewater2126.00
Shaun Hill3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarius Wright33570
Kyle Rudolph23531
Stefon Diggs45190
Adrian Peterson12150
Mike Wallace26110
Jerick McKinnon2380
Adam Thielen1150
Matt Asiata0100
Rhett Ellison0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

4.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.9%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.93
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.42