2024 · Week 1

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Darnold

28·6

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 64°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

MIN -1

Total

42.5

Model margin

-1.6est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapGiants
  • +0.038EPA / play-0.088
  • 46.3%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.135EPA / dropback-0.073
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.116
  • 9.6%Explosive rate6.8%
  • +4.00CPOE-1.45
  • 39.7%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
  • 2.09Points / drive1.28
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 12–7 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. NYG are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16MIN @ NYG16–13MIN
2022 · playoffsNYG @ MIN31–24NYG
2022 · W16NYG @ MIN24–27MIN
2019 · W5MIN @ NYG28–10MIN
2016 · W4NYG @ MIN10–24MIN
2015 · W16NYG @ MIN17–49MIN
2013 · W7MIN @ NYG7–23NYG
2010 · W14NYG @ MIN21–3NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–NYG
NYGQ1 15:003-4Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:5932Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 11:23615Field goal0–3
MINQ1 7:16739Touchdown7–3
NYGQ1 3:501052Punt7–3
MINQ2 13:3911104Touchdown14–3
NYGQ2 6:55621Punt14–3
MINQ2 3:33727Punt14–3
NYGQ2 0:5163Punt14–3
MINQ3 15:00765Touchdown21–3
NYGQ3 12:081148Field goal21–6
MINQ3 6:0836Punt27–6
NYGQ3 4:2610Opp touchdown28–6
NYGQ3 4:2237Punt28–6
MINQ3 3:21317Turnover28–6
NYGQ3 2:15940Turnover28–6
MINQ4 13:40622Punt28–6
NYGQ4 9:591260Turnover on downs28–6
MINQ4 4:52731Punt28–6
NYGQ4 1:363-2Punt28–6
MINQ4 0:2900End of half28–6

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold19/2420821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones14946.71
Ty Chandler8172.10
Sam Darnold331.00
Myles Gaskin1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson46591
Jordan Addison34350
Josh Oliver22270
Ty Chandler33250
Jalen Nailor11211
Johnny Mundt23150
Aaron Jones22150

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones22/4218602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary10373.70
Daniel Jones6152.50
Wan'Dale Robinson11414.00
Eric Gray263.00
Tyrone Tracy Jr.221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malik Nabers57660
Wan'Dale Robinson612440
Darius Slayton34260
Theo Johnson14180
Devin Singletary45150
Eric Gray1190
Tyrone Tracy Jr.1350
Daniel Bellinger1130
Jalin Hyatt0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.7%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.35
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.64