Closing spread
MIN -1
Total
42.5
Model margin
-1.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play-0.088
- 46.3%Success rate41.1%
- +0.135EPA / dropback-0.073
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.116
- 9.6%Explosive rate6.8%
- +4.00CPOE-1.45
- 39.7%Third-down rate36.0%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
- 2.09Points / drive1.28
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 12–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. NYG are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 19/24 | 208 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 14 | 94 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Ty Chandler | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 4 | 6 | 59 | 1 |
| Jordan Addison | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1 |
| Johnny Mundt | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 22/42 | 186 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Eric Gray | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 5 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 6 | 12 | 44 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.35
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.64