Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play+0.043
- 43.3%Success rate42.9%
- -0.115EPA / dropback+0.099
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.040
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.6%
- -2.84CPOE-1.30
- 32.4%Third-down rate39.6%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
- 1.75Points / drive2.06
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 12–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. NYG are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 9/14 | 108 | 0 | 1 |
| Max Brosmer | 7/9 | 52 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 21 | 85 | 4.0 | 0 |
| J.J. McCarthy | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Jordan Mason | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Zavier Scott | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Max Brosmer | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 8 | 85 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Zavier Scott | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tai Felton | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 7/13 | 33 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 16 | 71 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jaxson Dart | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.72
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.99