2025 · Week 16

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB J.J. McCarthy

16·13

Giants

New York

QB Jaxson Dart

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 46°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapGiants
  • -0.094EPA / play+0.043
  • 43.3%Success rate42.9%
  • -0.115EPA / dropback+0.099
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.040
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -2.84CPOE-1.30
  • 32.4%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
  • 1.75Points / drive2.06
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 12–7 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. NYG are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1MIN @ NYG28–6MIN
2022 · playoffsNYG @ MIN31–24NYG
2022 · W16NYG @ MIN24–27MIN
2019 · W5MIN @ NYG28–10MIN
2016 · W4NYG @ MIN10–24MIN
2015 · W16NYG @ MIN17–49MIN
2013 · W7MIN @ NYG7–23NYG
2010 · W14NYG @ MIN21–3NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–NYG
MINQ1 15:00835Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 10:491035Turnover on downs3–0
MINQ1 5:16724Turnover3–0
NYGQ1 1:411135Field goal3–3
MINQ2 11:041155Field goal6–3
NYGQ2 4:5030Turnover6–3
MINQ2 3:39426Touchdown13–3
NYGQ2 2:0146Punt13–3
MINQ2 0:532-8Opp touchdown13–10
MINQ2 0:1700End of half13–10
NYGQ3 15:00611Punt13–10
MINQ3 11:081053Punt13–10
NYGQ3 5:271554Field goal13–13
MINQ4 11:061347Field goal16–13
NYGQ4 4:1570Turnover on downs16–13
MINQ4 1:58311End of half16–13

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
J.J. McCarthy9/1410801
Max Brosmer7/95200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones21854.00
J.J. McCarthy22010.01
Jordan Mason252.50
Zavier Scott242.00
Max Brosmer3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson68850
Jordan Addison23260
Josh Oliver23190
Aaron Jones2380
Zavier Scott1180
Jordan Mason1160
Tai Felton1160
T.J. Hockenson1120
Jalen Nailor0200

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jaxson Dart7/133301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.16714.40
Devin Singletary11474.30
Jaxson Dart273.50
Wan'Dale Robinson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wan'Dale Robinson36190
Darius Slayton1280
Tyrone Tracy Jr.2270
Theo Johnson0200
Devin Singletary11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.7%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.72
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.99