Closing spread
NYG -4
Total
47.5
Model margin
+5.4est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.142
- 41.4%Success rate40.2%
- -0.026EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.002EPA / rush-0.235
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- -2.09CPOE-3.07
- 36.4%Third-down rate32.2%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 1.75Points / drive1.06
- 2.8%Turnover rate4.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 12–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. NYG are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 20/53 | 190 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 13 | 28 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 4 | 10 | 41 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 3 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 9 | 27 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 23/39 | 200 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 18 | 36 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Michael Cox | 11 | 23 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 5 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 3 | 3 | 40 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 2 | 10 | 28 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Michael Cox | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.4%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.09
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+5.39