2013 · Week 7

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Josh Freeman

7·23

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 57°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NYG -4

Total

47.5

Model margin

+5.4est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapGiants
  • -0.017EPA / play-0.142
  • 41.4%Success rate40.2%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback-0.087
  • -0.002EPA / rush-0.235
  • 10.2%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -2.09CPOE-3.07
  • 36.4%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.06
  • 2.8%Turnover rate4.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 12–7 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. NYG are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16MIN @ NYG16–13MIN
2024 · W1MIN @ NYG28–6MIN
2022 · playoffsNYG @ MIN31–24NYG
2022 · W16NYG @ MIN24–27MIN
2019 · W5MIN @ NYG28–10MIN
2016 · W4NYG @ MIN10–24MIN
2015 · W16NYG @ MIN17–49MIN
2010 · W14NYG @ MIN21–3NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–NYG
NYGQ1 15:001668Field goal0–3
MINQ1 5:2469Punt0–3
NYGQ1 3:00418Opp touchdown7–3
NYGQ1 0:2331Punt7–3
MINQ2 14:4539Punt7–3
NYGQ2 13:07859Touchdown7–10
MINQ2 9:33745Missed field goal7–10
NYGQ2 6:2530Punt7–10
MINQ2 5:2739Punt7–10
NYGQ2 3:49416Punt7–10
MINQ2 2:0058Punt7–10
NYGQ2 1:2137Punt7–10
MINQ2 0:3525End of half7–10
MINQ3 15:00313Punt7–10
MINQ3 14:0128Turnover7–10
NYGQ3 13:0932Punt7–10
MINQ3 11:3432Punt7–10
NYGQ3 10:3230Punt7–10
NYGQ3 9:1823Touchdown7–17
MINQ3 8:3765Punt7–17
NYGQ3 5:441577Field goal7–20
MINQ4 12:1300Field goal7–20
NYGQ4 12:0330Field goal7–23
MINQ4 11:031341Turnover on downs7–23
NYGQ4 6:383-2Punt7–23
MINQ4 4:201124Turnover on downs7–23
NYGQ4 2:2639Punt7–23
MINQ4 1:40728Turnover on downs7–23
NYGQ4 0:1900End of half7–23

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman20/5319001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson13282.20
Cordarrelle Patterson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings410410
Jerome Simpson39320
Adrian Peterson24280
Kyle Rudolph39270
Cordarrelle Patterson36220
Toby Gerhart23170
Jarius Wright15130
John Carlson1290
Joe Webb0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning23/3920010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Hillis18362.01
Michael Cox11232.10
Eli Manning351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Victor Cruz57500
Peyton Hillis56450
Rueben Randle33401
Hakeem Nicks210280
Brandon Myers23150
Bear Pascoe1240
Michael Cox2210
Larry Donnell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.4%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.09
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+5.39