2022 · Week 16

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

24·27

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -4.5

Total

48

Model margin

+3.0est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapVikings
  • +0.033EPA / play+0.004
  • 45.0%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.058EPA / dropback+0.070
  • -0.004EPA / rush-0.130
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +1.68CPOE+1.66
  • 37.7%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 71.3%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
  • 2.02Points / drive2.04
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 12–7 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. MIN are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16MIN @ NYG16–13MIN
2024 · W1MIN @ NYG28–6MIN
2022 · playoffsNYG @ MIN31–24NYG
2019 · W5MIN @ NYG28–10MIN
2016 · W4NYG @ MIN10–24MIN
2015 · W16NYG @ MIN17–49MIN
2013 · W7MIN @ NYG7–23NYG
2010 · W14NYG @ MIN21–3NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–MIN
MINQ1 15:00523Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:51624Punt0–0
MINQ1 10:57511Punt0–0
NYGQ1 8:4947Punt0–0
MINQ1 7:07884Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 3:17651Turnover0–7
MINQ2 14:50942Field goal0–10
NYGQ2 9:401069Touchdown7–10
MINQ2 4:2339Punt7–10
NYGQ2 2:44848Punt7–10
MINQ2 0:3744End of half7–10
NYGQ3 15:00744Field goal10–10
MINQ3 11:18519Punt10–10
NYGQ3 9:13760Field goal13–10
MINQ3 4:311270Touchdown13–17
NYGQ4 14:12543Turnover13–17
MINQ4 11:42627Turnover on downs13–17
NYGQ4 8:55518Field goal16–17
MINQ4 6:2432Punt16–17
NYGQ4 4:2436Punt16–17
MINQ4 4:02529Touchdown16–24
NYGQ4 3:00775Touchdown24–24
MINQ4 2:01633Field goal24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones30/4233411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley14846.01
Daniel Jones4348.50
Matt Breida294.50
Gary Brightwell1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Richie James811900
Isaiah Hodgins812891
Darius Slayton46790
Saquon Barkley810490
Daniel Bellinger22270

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins34/4829930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook14644.60
Alexander Mattison4174.30
Kirk Cousins122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson12161331
T.J. Hockenson13161092
K.J. Osborn34170
Johnny Mundt11160
Dalvin Cook34130
Adam Thielen1560

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.03