Closing spread
MIN -4.5
Total
48
Model margin
+3.0est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.033EPA / play+0.004
- 45.0%Success rate45.8%
- +0.058EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.004EPA / rush-0.130
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- +1.68CPOE+1.66
- 37.7%Third-down rate40.7%
- 71.3%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 2.02Points / drive2.04
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 12–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. MIN are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 30/42 | 334 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 14 | 84 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Gary Brightwell | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richie James | 8 | 11 | 90 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 8 | 12 | 89 | 1 |
| Darius Slayton | 4 | 6 | 79 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 8 | 10 | 49 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 34/48 | 299 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 12 | 16 | 133 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 13 | 16 | 109 | 2 |
| K.J. Osborn | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.25
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.03