Closing spread
MIN -5.5
Total
44
Model margin
-0.7est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.056EPA / play-0.064
- 42.1%Success rate41.8%
- +0.177EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.129
- 10.7%Explosive rate8.9%
- +3.53CPOE-1.92
- 44.0%Third-down rate37.8%
- 66.9%Red-zone TD rate69.6%
- 2.31Points / drive1.56
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 12–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. NYG are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 22/27 | 306 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 21 | 132 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 7 | 52 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 7 | 8 | 130 | 2 |
| Dalvin Cook | 6 | 6 | 86 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Bisi Johnson | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 21/38 | 182 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Hilliman | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 4 | 5 | 62 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 5 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 6 | 11 | 42 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Jon Hilliman | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.43
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.69