2019 · Week 5

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

28·10

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 66°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

MIN -5.5

Total

44

Model margin

-0.7est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapGiants
  • +0.056EPA / play-0.064
  • 42.1%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.129
  • 10.7%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +3.53CPOE-1.92
  • 44.0%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 66.9%Red-zone TD rate69.6%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.56
  • 1.8%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 12–7 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. NYG are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16MIN @ NYG16–13MIN
2024 · W1MIN @ NYG28–6MIN
2022 · playoffsNYG @ MIN31–24NYG
2022 · W16NYG @ MIN24–27MIN
2016 · W4NYG @ MIN10–24MIN
2015 · W16NYG @ MIN17–49MIN
2013 · W7MIN @ NYG7–23NYG
2010 · W14NYG @ MIN21–3NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–NYG
MINQ1 15:001062Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 8:46931Punt3–0
MINQ1 5:4111103Touchdown10–0
NYGQ2 14:55550Touchdown10–7
MINQ2 12:08952Field goal13–7
NYGQ2 7:51619Punt13–7
MINQ2 5:13685Turnover15–7
NYGQ2 2:131-1Safety15–7
MINQ2 2:09849Field goal18–7
NYGQ2 0:473-7Punt18–7
MINQ2 0:0110End of half18–7
NYGQ3 15:001546Field goal18–10
MINQ3 7:35557Touchdown25–10
NYGQ3 4:521316Turnover on downs25–10
MINQ3 0:0934Punt25–10
NYGQ4 14:041249Turnover on downs25–10
MINQ4 9:01956Field goal28–10
NYGQ4 4:0948Turnover28–10
MINQ4 3:20423End of half28–10

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins22/2730620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook211326.30
Alexander Mattison7527.40
Ameer Abdullah3248.00
Kirk Cousins331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen781302
Dalvin Cook66860
Stefon Diggs34440
Bisi Johnson44430
Kyle Rudolph1140

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones21/3818211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jon Hilliman9202.20
Wayne Gallman2147.00
Daniel Jones3124.00
Evan Engram252.50
Sterling Shepard1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton45621
Sterling Shepard59490
Evan Engram611420
Golden Tate36130
Jon Hilliman1240
Rhett Ellison1130
Cody Latimer0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.2%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.69