Closing spread
NYJ -1
Total
38
Model margin
+3.8est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.030
- 39.0%Success rate38.9%
- +0.010EPA / dropback+0.047
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.9%
- 33.0%Third-down rate34.6%
- 48.6%Red-zone TD rate40.9%
- 1.40Points / drive1.28
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.076EPA / play allowed-0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–2 since 1999
SEA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. NYJ are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 57 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 10:30 | 11 | 69 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| SEA | Q1 4:03 | 6 | 44 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 1:03 | 6 | 55 | Touchdown | 6–10 |
| SEA | Q2 13:21 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 6–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 10:22 | 14 | 74 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| SEA | Q2 3:40 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 6–13 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:46 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–13 |
| SEA | Q2 0:37 | 3 | 37 | Turnover | 6–13 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:11 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 6–13 |
| SEA | Q2 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–13 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 62 | Field goal | 9–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 9:54 | 6 | 58 | Field goal | 9–16 |
| SEA | Q3 6:01 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 9–16 |
| NYJ | Q3 5:24 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 9–16 |
| SEA | Q3 3:27 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 9–16 |
| NYJ | Q3 2:35 | 9 | 49 | Turnover | 9–16 |
| SEA | Q4 13:28 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 9–16 |
| NYJ | Q4 13:02 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 9–16 |
| SEA | Q4 11:04 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 9–16 |
| NYJ | Q4 9:22 | 8 | 37 | Field goal | 9–19 |
| SEA | Q4 4:21 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 9–19 |
| NYJ | Q4 3:32 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 9–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 21/45 | 237 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Dawkins | 4 | 11 | 66 | 0 |
| Derrick Mayes | 5 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Mike Pritchard | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Lucas | 15/25 | 211 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 34 | 158 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Ray Lucas | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Chrebet | 5 | 8 | 88 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 3 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Blake Spence | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.82