Closing spread
NYJ -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play-0.057
- 47.0%Success rate37.8%
- +0.031EPA / dropback-0.022
- +0.048EPA / rush-0.103
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.7%
- +3.75CPOE-5.09
- 40.6%Third-down rate31.4%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
- 1.85Points / drive1.56
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–2 since 1999
SEA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. SEA are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 78 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q1 8:07 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 6:14 | 10 | 47 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q1 0:41 | 6 | 40 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 13:05 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q2 10:57 | 3 | 20 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 10:22 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q2 9:27 | 7 | 50 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 6:14 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q2 3:20 | 7 | 25 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:31 | 1 | -7 | End of half | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NYJ | Q3 12:15 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q3 9:40 | 12 | 79 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 2:42 | 10 | 49 | Punt | 3–10 |
| SEA | Q4 13:15 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NYJ | Q4 9:51 | 6 | 1 | Punt | 3–10 |
| SEA | Q4 6:48 | 4 | 28 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NYJ | Q4 3:06 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 3–10 |
| SEA | Q4 2:12 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:47 | 2 | 30 | Turnover | 3–13 |
| SEA | Q4 1:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 18/31 | 187 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 17 | 67 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 18/25 | 175 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 29 | 116 | 4.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.27