Closing spread
NYJ -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play-0.057
- 47.0%Success rate37.8%
- +0.031EPA / dropback-0.022
- +0.048EPA / rush-0.103
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.7%
- +3.75CPOE-5.09
- 40.6%Third-down rate31.4%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
- 1.85Points / drive1.56
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–2 since 1999
SEA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. SEA are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 18/31 | 187 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 17 | 67 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 18/25 | 175 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 29 | 116 | 4.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.27