Closing spread
SEA -16.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play+0.105
- 40.9%Success rate48.8%
- -0.098EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.013
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.6%
- -2.07CPOE+6.78
- 34.4%Third-down rate39.6%
- 41.2%Red-zone TD rate72.6%
- 1.24Points / drive2.52
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–2 since 1999
SEA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. SEA are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 14/26 | 132 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Adams | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Berrios | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Jaleel Scott | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jeff Smith | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Herndon | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Josh Adams | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 21/27 | 206 | 4 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 4/5 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 12 | 76 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Carlos Hyde | 15 | 66 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Penny Hart | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 6 | 8 | 61 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 |
| Chris Carson | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 2 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Jacob Hollister | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| David Moore | 3 | 5 | 20 | 1 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Penny Hart | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.93
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.63