Closing spread
NYJ -6.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.040
- 44.4%Success rate45.5%
- +0.090EPA / dropback+0.023
- -0.040EPA / rush+0.058
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.3%
- 37.2%Third-down rate42.9%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 1.81Points / drive1.86
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.5%
- +0.004EPA / play allowed-0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–2 since 1999
SEA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. NYJ are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 71 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q1 9:54 | 9 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 5:27 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| SEA | Q2 14:57 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 7–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 12:00 | 8 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| SEA | Q2 7:44 | 9 | 42 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| NYJ | Q2 3:08 | 4 | 54 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| SEA | Q2 1:48 | 12 | 71 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–24 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–24 |
| NYJ | Q3 13:29 | 8 | 82 | Touchdown | 14–30 |
| SEA | Q3 9:22 | 14 | 68 | Turnover | 14–30 |
| NYJ | Q3 2:13 | 10 | 68 | Missed field goal | 14–30 |
| SEA | Q4 12:19 | 3 | -2 | Turnover | 14–30 |
| NYJ | Q4 11:18 | 5 | 23 | Touchdown | 14–37 |
| SEA | Q4 8:14 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–37 |
| NYJ | Q4 7:06 | 9 | 41 | End of half | 14–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 22/30 | 201 | 2 | 1 |
| Trent Dilfer | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 19 | 77 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 18/24 | 253 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 24 | 134 | 5.6 | 2 |
| LaMont Jordan | 15 | 84 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
4.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.98