2024 · Week 13

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

26·21

Jets

New York

QB Aaron Rodgers

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 37°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

NYJ -1

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapJets
  • -0.013EPA / play-0.001
  • 44.4%Success rate43.0%
  • +0.044EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.108
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +4.61CPOE-1.89
  • 37.5%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.85
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 6–2 since 1999

SEA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. NYJ are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W17NYJ @ SEA6–23SEA
2020 · W14NYJ @ SEA3–40SEA
2016 · W4SEA @ NYJ27–17SEA
2012 · W10NYJ @ SEA7–28SEA
2008 · W16NYJ @ SEA3–13SEA
2004 · W15SEA @ NYJ14–37NYJ
1999 · W17SEA @ NYJ9–19NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–NYJ
SEAQ1 15:00610Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:3533Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:4239Punt0–0
NYJQ1 9:261270Touchdown0–6
SEAQ1 3:2500Touchdown0–6
NYJQ1 3:18426Touchdown0–14
SEAQ1 1:471083Touchdown7–20
NYJQ2 10:5300Touchdown7–21
SEAQ2 10:4000Opp touchdown7–21
NYJQ2 10:34629Opp touchdown13–21
NYJQ2 7:3948Turnover on downs13–21
SEAQ2 5:57416Field goal16–21
NYJQ2 4:15620Punt16–21
SEAQ2 1:0536Punt16–21
NYJQ2 0:0610End of half16–21
NYJQ3 15:00727Punt16–21
SEAQ3 11:391572Turnover on downs16–21
NYJQ3 5:28519Turnover16–21
SEAQ3 3:16939Field goal19–21
NYJQ4 13:11414Punt19–21
SEAQ4 11:341225Touchdown26–21
NYJQ4 5:311443Turnover on downs26–21
SEAQ4 0:3300End of half26–21

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith20/3120610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III16493.10
Zach Charbonnet4287.01
Jaxon Smith-Njigba155.00
Geno Smith221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba44740
DK Metcalf49660
Noah Fant34260
Tyler Lockett33160
AJ Barner22141
Zach Charbonnet23130
Pharaoh Brown0100
Kenneth Walker III23-30

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers21/3918521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall12605.00
Braelon Allen5112.20
Malachi Corley188.00
Aaron Rodgers263.00
Isaiah Davis144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams512661
Garrett Wilson510410
Tyler Conklin45320
Isaiah Davis33281
Braelon Allen22160
Jeremy Ruckert1230
Breece Hall0100
Malachi Corley0200
Xavier Gipson11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.3%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.21