Closing spread
NYJ -1
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play-0.001
- 44.4%Success rate43.0%
- +0.044EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.108
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- +4.61CPOE-1.89
- 37.5%Third-down rate39.7%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.82Points / drive1.85
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–2 since 1999
SEA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. NYJ are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 20/31 | 206 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 16 | 49 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 4 | 4 | 74 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 2 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/39 | 185 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Malachi Corley | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 5 | 12 | 66 | 1 |
| Garrett Wilson | 5 | 10 | 41 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 3 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
| Braelon Allen | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Malachi Corley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.05
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.21