Closing spread
NYJ -1
Total
43
Model margin
+1.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play+0.013
- 39.1%Success rate44.8%
- -0.081EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.2%
- -4.97CPOE+5.46
- 34.3%Third-down rate37.4%
- 39.8%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
- 1.41Points / drive2.05
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–2 since 1999
SEA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. SEA are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike White | 23/46 | 240 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Johnson | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Conklin | 6 | 6 | 80 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 3 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 3 | 11 | 18 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Denzel Mims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 18/29 | 183 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 23 | 133 | 5.8 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Godwin Igwebuike | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeeJay Dallas | 3 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 5 | 7 | 36 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tyler Mabry | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Godwin Igwebuike | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Cade Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.30
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.70
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+1.14