2022 · Week 17

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mike White

6·23

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

NYJ -1

Total

43

Model margin

+1.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.086EPA / play+0.013
  • 39.1%Success rate44.8%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.071
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -4.97CPOE+5.46
  • 34.3%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 39.8%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
  • 1.41Points / drive2.05
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 6–2 since 1999

SEA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. SEA are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13SEA @ NYJ26–21SEA
2020 · W14NYJ @ SEA3–40SEA
2016 · W4SEA @ NYJ27–17SEA
2012 · W10NYJ @ SEA7–28SEA
2008 · W16NYJ @ SEA3–13SEA
2004 · W15SEA @ NYJ14–37NYJ
1999 · W17SEA @ NYJ9–19NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00373Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 13:25642Turnover0–7
SEAQ1 11:13857Field goal0–10
NYJQ1 6:37849Field goal3–10
SEAQ1 2:19870Touchdown3–17
NYJQ2 14:151049Field goal6–17
SEAQ2 8:003-11Punt6–17
NYJQ2 5:53518Turnover on downs6–17
SEAQ2 3:43821Punt6–17
NYJQ2 0:47823Turnover6–17
NYJQ3 15:00633Missed field goal6–17
SEAQ3 12:001240Field goal6–20
NYJQ3 6:0330Punt6–20
SEAQ3 5:4539Punt6–20
NYJQ3 3:3134Punt6–20
SEAQ3 1:45945Missed field goal6–20
NYJQ4 12:5938Punt6–20
SEAQ4 11:19514Punt6–20
NYJQ4 9:3210Turnover6–20
SEAQ4 9:17611Field goal6–23
NYJQ4 5:41511Turnover on downs6–23
SEAQ4 3:56717Turnover on downs6–23
NYJQ4 1:561042End of half6–23

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike White23/4624002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ty Johnson8465.80
Bam Knight8273.40
Michael Carter122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Conklin66800
Corey Davis36450
C.J. Uzomah37240
Braxton Berrios11240
Elijah Moore22180
Garrett Wilson311180
Bam Knight23170
Ty Johnson15110
Michael Carter2330
Denzel Mims0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith18/2918320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III231335.80
DeeJay Dallas7436.10
Geno Smith5183.60
Godwin Igwebuike341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeeJay Dallas34550
Noah Fant23400
Colby Parkinson57361
Tyler Lockett22150
Laquon Treadwell22150
Kenneth Walker III1190
Tyler Mabry1171
Godwin Igwebuike1130
DK Metcalf1530
Cade Johnson0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.30
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.70
  • Rest differential-0.16
  • Expected margin+1.14