2012 · Week 10

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

7·28

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 43°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

SEA -5

Total

38

Model margin

+5.8est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.101EPA / play+0.109
  • 41.7%Success rate45.2%
  • -0.139EPA / dropback+0.213
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.005
  • 7.8%Explosive rate11.2%
  • -5.39CPOE+5.50
  • 36.9%Third-down rate39.8%
  • 47.4%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 1.20Points / drive2.17
  • 3.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 6–2 since 1999

SEA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. SEA are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13SEA @ NYJ26–21SEA
2022 · W17NYJ @ SEA6–23SEA
2020 · W14NYJ @ SEA3–40SEA
2016 · W4SEA @ NYJ27–17SEA
2008 · W16NYJ @ SEA3–13SEA
2004 · W15SEA @ NYJ14–37NYJ
1999 · W17SEA @ NYJ9–19NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–SEA
NYJQ1 15:001235Turnover on downs0–0
SEAQ1 9:34359Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 8:0139Punt0–7
SEAQ1 6:2334Punt0–7
NYJQ1 4:413-2Punt0–7
SEAQ1 3:252-20Opp touchdown7–7
SEAQ1 2:50623Turnover7–7
NYJQ2 14:50761Turnover7–7
SEAQ2 10:4534Punt7–7
NYJQ2 8:3732Punt7–7
SEAQ2 7:4135Punt7–7
SEAQ2 5:45947Touchdown7–14
NYJQ2 2:0434Punt7–14
SEAQ2 1:19612Punt7–14
NYJQ2 0:2913End of half7–14
SEAQ3 15:0038Punt7–14
NYJQ3 13:26519Punt7–14
SEAQ3 10:49934Punt7–14
NYJQ3 5:33722Punt7–14
SEAQ3 1:51784Touchdown7–21
NYJQ4 13:33527Turnover7–21
SEAQ4 11:32764Touchdown7–28
NYJQ4 7:5935Punt7–28
SEAQ4 7:05942End of half7–28

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez9/2212401
Tim Tebow3/3800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene15583.90
Tim Tebow4143.50
Bilal Powell177.00
Jeremy Kerley155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Kerley58570
Dustin Keller35470
Clyde Gates15100
Shonn Greene1250
Bilal Powell1140
Stephen Hill0200

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson12/1918820
Golden Tate1/12310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch271244.61
Russell Wilson7344.90
Robert Turbin7172.40
Leon Washington2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sidney Rice27542
Golden Tate22511
Doug Baldwin34420
Zach Miller56370
Marshawn Lynch11270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.4%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+5.79