Closing spread
SEA -5
Total
38
Model margin
+5.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.101EPA / play+0.109
- 41.7%Success rate45.2%
- -0.139EPA / dropback+0.213
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.005
- 7.8%Explosive rate11.2%
- -5.39CPOE+5.50
- 36.9%Third-down rate39.8%
- 47.4%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.20Points / drive2.17
- 3.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–2 since 1999
SEA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. SEA are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 9/22 | 124 | 0 | 1 |
| Tim Tebow | 3/3 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 15 | 58 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Kerley | 5 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Clyde Gates | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Stephen Hill | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 12/19 | 188 | 2 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1/1 | 23 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 27 | 124 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Rice | 2 | 7 | 54 | 2 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 2 | 51 | 1 |
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 5 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+5.79