2016 · Week 4

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

27·17

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 61°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

SEA -1

Total

40

Model margin

-1.3est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapJets
  • +0.022EPA / play-0.069
  • 44.0%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.102EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.070
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +4.81CPOE-4.70
  • 38.7%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 41.8%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.40
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 6–2 since 1999

SEA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. NYJ are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13SEA @ NYJ26–21SEA
2022 · W17NYJ @ SEA6–23SEA
2020 · W14NYJ @ SEA3–40SEA
2012 · W10NYJ @ SEA7–28SEA
2008 · W16NYJ @ SEA3–13SEA
2004 · W15SEA @ NYJ14–37NYJ
1999 · W17SEA @ NYJ9–19NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:001362Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 6:27634Punt0–3
NYJQ1 3:05754Punt0–3
SEAQ1 0:06792Touchdown7–3
NYJQ2 11:34833Punt7–3
SEAQ2 7:42790Touchdown14–3
NYJQ2 3:441280Touchdown14–10
SEAQ2 0:1300End of half14–10
SEAQ3 15:00614Punt14–10
NYJQ3 10:5267Punt14–10
SEAQ3 7:43841Field goal17–10
NYJQ3 4:135-4Punt17–10
SEAQ3 2:2937Punt17–10
NYJQ3 0:57421Turnover17–10
SEAQ4 14:27461Touchdown24–10
NYJQ4 12:2035Punt24–10
SEAQ4 11:121027Punt24–10
NYJQ4 5:4910Turnover24–10
SEAQ4 5:423-15Field goal27–10
NYJQ4 4:04730Touchdown27–17
SEAQ4 2:1536Punt27–17
NYJQ4 1:41517Turnover27–17
SEAQ4 0:4800End of half27–17

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson23/3230930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christine Michael18583.20
C.J. Spiller2126.00
Alex Collins111.00
Russell Wilson5-5-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham681130
Doug Baldwin44540
Tanner McEvoy11421
Christine Michael56321
Paul Richardson11270
Jermaine Kearse33230
Tyler Lockett13130
C.J. Spiller2351
Luke Willson0300

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick23/4126113

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte14271.90
Bilal Powell4266.50
Ryan Fitzpatrick252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall412891
Quincy Enunwa67600
Bilal Powell69540
Charone Peake33300
Matt Forte23160
Robbie Chosen26120
Braedon Bowman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.5%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.31