Closing spread
SEA -1
Total
40
Model margin
-1.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play-0.069
- 44.0%Success rate40.5%
- +0.102EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.070
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- +4.81CPOE-4.70
- 38.7%Third-down rate36.5%
- 41.8%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 1.88Points / drive1.40
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–2 since 1999
SEA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. NYJ are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 23/32 | 309 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christine Michael | 18 | 58 | 3.2 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | -5 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 8 | 113 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 4 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Tanner McEvoy | 1 | 1 | 42 | 1 |
| Christine Michael | 5 | 6 | 32 | 1 |
| Paul Richardson | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Luke Willson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 23/41 | 261 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 14 | 27 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 4 | 12 | 89 | 1 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 6 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 6 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Charone Peake | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Braedon Bowman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.05
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.31