2000 · Week 1

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Shaun King

21·16

Patriots

New England

QB Drew Bledsoe

Foxboro Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TB -3

Total

36

Model margin

+0.7est.

NE perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPatriots
  • -0.016EPA / play-0.079
  • 39.8%Success rate38.3%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.195
  • 7.9%Explosive rate5.5%
  • 33.9%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 56.1%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
  • 1.46Points / drive1.30
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.114EPA / play allowed+0.010

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 36.1 points. NE are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10NE @ TB28–23NE
2021 · W4TB @ NE19–17TB
2017 · W5NE @ TB19–14NE
2013 · W3TB @ NE3–23NE
2009 · W7NE @ TB35–7NE
2005 · W15TB @ NE0–28NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–NE
TBQ1 15:0000Field goal0–0
NEQ1 14:47616Field goal0–3
TBQ1 12:1938Punt0–3
NEQ1 10:32613Punt0–3
TBQ1 7:04749Punt0–3
NEQ1 4:05437Punt0–3
TBQ1 1:371167Touchdown7–3
NEQ2 10:4135Punt7–3
TBQ2 8:5537Opp touchdown7–10
NEQ2 7:2500Opp touchdown7–10
TBQ2 7:25934Punt7–10
NEQ2 3:1536Punt7–10
TBQ2 1:38450Touchdown14–10
NEQ2 0:31338Missed field goal14–10
NEQ3 15:00621Punt14–10
TBQ3 11:07721Punt14–10
NEQ3 8:3637Punt14–10
TBQ3 7:4732Punt14–10
NEQ3 6:0437Turnover14–10
TBQ3 5:09424Touchdown21–10
NEQ3 3:09620Punt21–10
TBQ3 0:28522Punt21–10
NEQ4 12:443-4Punt21–10
TBQ4 11:2336Punt21–10
NEQ4 9:25729Punt21–10
TBQ4 6:07314Punt21–10
NEQ4 4:18460Touchdown21–16
TBQ4 3:013-8Punt21–16
NEQ4 1:531023Turnover on downs21–16

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun King12/2416710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn16563.50
Shaun King4215.30
Jacquez Green166.00
Keyshawn Johnson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jacquez Green27670
Keyshawn Johnson47640
Reidel Anthony1281
Karl Williams1280
Dave Moore1260
Warrick Dunn1250
Rabih Abdullah1130

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe26/3921610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Troy Brown23316.50
Drew Bledsoe8303.80
Kevin Faulk10212.10
Tony Carter144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Troy Brown77700
Kevin Faulk1114620
Terry Glenn47561
Eric Bjornson24150
Tony Simmons1390
Rod Rutledge1140
Chris Calloway0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.0%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.71