2000 · Week 1
Final
Foxboro Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
36
Model margin
+0.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play-0.079
- 39.8%Success rate38.3%
- +0.041EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.195
- 7.9%Explosive rate5.5%
- 33.9%Third-down rate35.1%
- 56.1%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.46Points / drive1.30
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.114EPA / play allowed+0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 36.1 points. NE are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 12/24 | 167 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 16 | 56 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquez Green | 2 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 4 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Karl Williams | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 26/39 | 216 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 10 | 21 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 7 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 11 | 14 | 62 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 4 | 7 | 56 | 1 |
| Eric Bjornson | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Tony Simmons | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Chris Calloway | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.71