2025 · Week 10

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

28·23

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

TB -2.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-1.7est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.154EPA / play+0.006
  • 48.2%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.308EPA / dropback+0.064
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.087
  • 10.5%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +10.94CPOE-2.55
  • 43.3%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 63.4%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 2.47Points / drive1.89
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 36.1 points. TB are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W4TB @ NE19–17TB
2017 · W5NE @ TB19–14NE
2013 · W3TB @ NE3–23NE
2009 · W7NE @ TB35–7NE
2005 · W15TB @ NE0–28NE
2000 · W1TB @ NE21–16TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–TB
TBQ1 15:00665Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 11:23711Punt0–7
TBQ1 8:22627Punt0–7
NEQ1 6:02833Punt0–7
TBQ1 1:473-3Punt6–7
NEQ1 0:11172Touchdown7–7
TBQ2 15:0038Punt7–7
NEQ2 13:15514Punt7–7
TBQ2 11:41757Field goal7–10
NEQ2 7:161583Touchdown14–10
NEQ3 15:00265Touchdown21–10
TBQ3 14:12512Punt21–10
NEQ3 11:3833Punt21–10
TBQ3 10:021270Touchdown21–16
NEQ3 4:12723Turnover on downs21–16
TBQ3 1:14718Punt21–16
NEQ4 12:3339Punt21–16
TBQ4 10:1232Punt21–16
NEQ4 8:03753Turnover21–16
TBQ4 5:17950Turnover on downs21–16
NEQ4 1:47270Touchdown28–16
TBQ4 1:31765Touchdown28–23
NEQ4 0:3300End of half28–23

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye16/3127021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
TreVeyon Henderson1414710.52
Drake Maye7131.90
Terrell Jennings451.30
D'Ernest Johnson111.00
DeMario Douglas100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mack Hollins6101060
Kyle Williams12721
Stefon Diggs58461
DeMario Douglas22340
Hunter Henry1490
TreVeyon Henderson1130
Austin Hooper0100
Jack Westover0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield28/4327330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sean Tucker9535.90
Rachaad White10383.80
Sterling Shepard11111.00
Kameron Johnson11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emeka Egbuka6131151
Cade Otton912820
Tez Johnson45422
Sterling Shepard34200
Rachaad White55160
Payne Durham0100
Kameron Johnson0100
Sean Tucker12-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.6%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-1.67