2025 · Week 10
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 11mph
Closing spread
TB -2.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-1.7est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.154EPA / play+0.006
- 48.2%Success rate43.3%
- +0.308EPA / dropback+0.064
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.087
- 10.5%Explosive rate8.4%
- +10.94CPOE-2.55
- 43.3%Third-down rate41.0%
- 63.4%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 2.47Points / drive1.89
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 36.1 points. TB are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 16/31 | 270 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | 14 | 147 | 10.5 | 2 |
| Drake Maye | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Terrell Jennings | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Hollins | 6 | 10 | 106 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 2 | 72 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 8 | 46 | 1 |
| DeMario Douglas | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Westover | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 28/43 | 273 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Tucker | 9 | 53 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Kameron Johnson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka Egbuka | 6 | 13 | 115 | 1 |
| Cade Otton | 9 | 12 | 82 | 0 |
| Tez Johnson | 4 | 5 | 42 | 2 |
| Sterling Shepard | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 5 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Payne Durham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kameron Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.6%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.93
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-1.67